Paradoxical results for year 2007

Results for year 2006 were obvious and predictable. The rigged election, mass arrests, threats and persecution of the youth – it all was as simple as multiplication table. The history wobbled, knotted, was full was paradoxes, so the results are also paradoxical, as the whole year and its characters. We suggest a version of the newspaper “Vybor” (Choice) of the results for the year. This newspaper was delivered to many mail boxes of Belarusians, including the mail box of Charter’97 press center.

Person of the year

Viktar IVASHKEVICH, deputy head of the Belarusian Popular Front. He is an inherently paradoxical person, because one can’t associate a post in the party with Ivashkevich’s image of sybarite and man of pleasure. But Ivashkevich has deserved a nomination of the most impressive person not by the role of party functionary, but as a leader of street actions.

However, Ivashkevich has a rich street experience: it was he, who organised the BPF party rallies yet in early 1990ies, was a member of a strike committee in 1995 and took to square with workers of the Minsk tractor Plant. He was sentenced to administrative arrests more than 10 times. In 2002 he was sentenced to 2 years of restriction of freedom (“Khimiya”) according to the article “libel against president” after he published an article “Thief must be in prison” in the newspaper “Rabochi”. He was serving his punishment for a year on “khimiya” and was amnestied. Before his departure to “khimiya” he said he didn’t understand why he was considered a hero: “Have you ever been in a hostel? Have you seen the living conditions of students? Well, they have this “khimiya” for five years. I have just two years!”

Viktar Ivashkevich did much for preparation for the Day of Freedom on 25 March, headed the organising committees of Charnobylski Shlyach (Chernobyl Path) and the European March this year. Ahead of the European March, on 25 September, he was arrested in the Minsk center. He was detained by a whole riot police platoon – probably there exist legends about Ivashkevich in police circles. They probably think he is Terminator, otherwise, why did they need a platoon?.. Ivashkevich spent a night in the Pershamaiski District police department of Minsk. The court of Pershamaiski Distric released him on the next day, regarded the reports drawn up by the riot policemen to be not convincing enough.

On the day of the Social March, 4 November, Ivashkevich came out to October Square with two flags – a white-red-white and a European ones. His personal action is a demonstration of his words, he repeated often: “Dialog and cooperation are better than confrontation. But if the authorities will choose a confrontation, it will redound upon themselves.” However, Ivashkevich, open to dialog and cooperation, said also: “Enough sitting in trenches. We must break through.”

Offer of the year

The opposition offered the authorities a dialog for the first time after long years of confrontation. It was officially suggested by Alyaksandr Milinkevich in the letter to Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The idea was supported by all democratic forces of the country. The readiness of Belarusian opposition for a dialog has become a sensation not only in Belarus, but also in Europe. After many years of repressions it was very difficult to give the authorities a helping hand. But the opposition did it in spite of arrests, persecutions and threats. As famous Belarusian diplomat Andrei Sannikov said, “Belarus is really in a threshold state. The decisions should be quick and measured, otherwise we will become hostages of unpredictable events.” Because yet at the end of the last year Russian officials said directly: if Lukashenka wants gas prices that Tambov has, welcome to Russia as a subject of the federation. Double hike in gas price next year and perspective of its further increasing in 2008 – is a probation period, after which Lukashenka and his country should surrender to Russia. All conditions were created for that: hike in gas price led to economic crisis. Products prices and utility bills are increasing every day, benefits are cancelled, enterprises are being closed, unemployment is growing. Financial dependence of our economy on Russia has become too evident and dangerous. Belarus-2007 has faced an unusual situation for totalitarian countries: the authority and the opposition have found a common value – Independence that should be defended and preserved, even if it is necessary to negotiate with the enemy. The country is above all.

Not only the opposition, but also Europe offered its help to the Belarusian authorities. Loans, investments, cheaper visas for Belarusians – it could have become a reality at any moment. Only simple conditions must have been fulfilled – release of political prisoners, stopping persecution of, holding of fair election. Nothing difficult. Nothing impossible. In return open Europe, overcoming the crisis, good perspectives were possible. But the authorities are still silent.

But not all people at power are keeping silence. Officials, like all Belarusians, have tired of unpredictability of their lives and uncertainty of the future, have tired of being hostages of mood and wishes of a certain person. To bow to necessity is difficult only one person – Alyaksandr Rygoravich Lukashenka . He still hopes the pitiful Europe will accept him as he is. And will grant a loan. He also believes in miracle that Putin will present Belarus gas. In order people to have good memory of him after he leaves post of president. Fat chance, Alyaksandr Rygoravich! Sweet dreams!

Tendency of the year

Earlier Belarus was simply an isolated form the civilised world country. This year it has began to turn into an absolute rogue state and outsider like Cuba or North Korea. The EU cancelled the Generalised System of Preferences for Belarus on 21 June. The decision was taken yet in early 2007, but it was put on hold in order the authorities of the country have time to bring the labour law in line with international standards. Minsk didn’t listen to advice.

The reason of the preferences withdrawal is violation of the rights of trade union organisations in Belarus. Independent trade unions should have right to work on enterprises and defend rights of workers. But trade unions in Belarus are a part of state system, as it was in the Soviet Union.

The Generalised System of Preferences was adopted in 1971. It is a system of custom privileges that developing countries receive from developed countries. As a rule profit of import-export amounts to no less than 10 per cent. Belarus, whose sale volume with the UE was EUR 3 billion in 2005, can lose up to EUR 300 million annually. Light, chemical and wood industries will suffer first of all. By the way, Belarus is the second country, for which preferences were cancelled due to violation of the rights of workers. The first country was Burma.

On 3 August the US Department of State increased a number of Belarusian officials against whom the sanctions were imposed. The regime of Aleksandr Lukashenka has continued to imprison and harass persons for speaking out in favor of democracy, holding peaceful demonstrations, and opposing the repressive policies of the regime. Despite some initial minor easing this spring of repressive measures, we have seen a renewed deterioration in the human rights and democracy situation in Belarus in the past few weeks,” the statement of the US Embassy in Belarus says.

According to the new document, entry into US is denied not only for old non-grata persons, such as Alyaksandr Lukashenka, Viktar Sheiman, Yury Sivakou, Ukadzimir Navumau and Dzmitry Paulichenka, suspected by the world community of kidnapping and killings, but many other Belarusian officials: ministers and deputy ministers; Prosecutor-General or Deputy Prosecutor-General; Ministry of Interior officer above the rank of Lieutenant Colonel; BKGB officers above the rank of Lieutenant Colonel; Oblast and Minsk City ideology officers; the Head and Deputy Heads of the Presidential administration; any member of the Central Election Commission;the Chairpersons of oblast Central Elections Commissions;the Chief Judges of Belarus District and Regional courts; the Chief Judge of the Constitutional Court; the Directors and Deputy Directors of state-owned companies; the spouses of any official or employee listed above.

The other wave of sanctions was targeted against state-owned concern Belneftekhim. The US Treasury imposed the sanctions against the concern itself and its offices in Russia, Ukraine, China, Germany, Latvia, and US in November. All assets of the enterprises from this list in the US should be frozen, it is denied for them to have business on the territory of the country. The Belarusian concern on oil and chemistry unites 50 organisations (including two oil processing plants, oil producing company Belarusneft, potash producer Belaruskali). 120 thousand of people work for the concern. The production if delivered to more than 80 countries. The rate of all organisation of the concern in the volume of industrial products amounts to 35per cent, and export rate is 50 per cent.

Our close neighbours – Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, as well as Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and Malta joined the Schengen Zone on 21 December. Schengen visas will increase in price for Belarusians up to 60 euro. But Russia and Ukraine have preserved old visa fee for their citizens – 35 euro, via signing unilateral treaties with Brussels in the frames of European Neighbourhood Policy. But such treaty wasn’t even discussed with Belarus, as the EU agreed to sign the treaty in the frames of Neighbourhood Policy only if our country fulfil 12 offers of the EU, the most important of them being release of all Belarusian political prisoners.

All sanctions against Lukashenka’s regime were imposed due to brutal repressions against the opposition, rigging the election, total violation of human rights and non-fulfilment of 12 offers of the UE, aimed at normalisation the relation between the civilised world and Belarus. According to the human rights activists, tens of thousands of people have been repressed during Lukashenka’s rule. It means, some thousands of people are arrested, beaten, dismissed, expelled from universities, their relatives are intimidated annually. If the repressions don’t stop, the sanctions against Belarus will be stricter. And the today’s rogue country will turn into a black spot on the world map.

Quotation of the year:

What our life was rich of, it is direct speech. All speeches of Lukashenka are a source of quotations. One needn’t even comment them. It’s necessary just to quote, and everything becomes clear, beginning from “I will not lead my people to a civilised world” and ending with Belarusian people, who will have bad, but short life. But this year Natallya Pyatkevich, deputy head of Lukashenka’s administration, won the main prize. Alyaksandr Lukashenka can present her his portrait with the sign “To pupil-winner from defeated teacher”.

“We should have taken a grip on oneself and make a radical step, to repeal benefits for each and everyone,” Natallya Pyatkevich stated on May 3 during the meeting with Belarusian “parliamentarians” and representatives of public organizations. The event was organized on the initiative of the Presidential administration and the “chamber of representatives” for discussing the draft law “On state social allowances, rights and guarantees for certain categories of citizens”.

“I do not expect understanding from you. It is impossible to find arguments for repeal of benefits,” Pyatkevich said. “The state is economizing not because it has big money or life is wonderful. We could retain benefits, but consequently public utility bills would be two-three times more costly”.

Pyatkevich underlined that over the last two years a very active work on liquidation of all allowances and benefits. As said by her, a variant of repeal of all benefits for all categories of citizens was considered during preparation of the draft law.

She also informed that after repeal of benefits the state would economize about 1 billion, but she didn’t specified will it be a million of rubles or dollars. To the proposal of public organizations to offer the draft law for a nationwide discussion. Pyatkevich stated: “The draft law won’t be offered for a nationwide discussion”.

It is understandable that the state is repeals benefits. But still it’s strange that in order to overcome the economic crisis the regime has decided to deliver a strike on senior citizens, disables persons, children, Chernobyl liquidators, who are the most unprotected categories. Despite of the high prices for energy resources, the regime ahs money to continue construction of unnecessary ice palaces in every regional center, to build Belarusian “Rublevka” (or Rublevo-Uspenskoe Shosse, a highway in Moscow going to the most prestigious area outside of Moscow), to organize expensive “Dazhynki” festivals, to take an army of officials over three seas, to Venezuela, together with singing and dancing people. The regime understands perfectly well: poor, helpless and sick would not be able to protect themselves anyway. They do not have either power or time for that. They have to survive. And the officials are to invent new entertainments for them at the expense of the state, in order not to go mad from boredom. And Natallya Pyatkevich’s revelations confirm that once again.

Action of the year

Strangely enough, it was not the European March or Charnobylski Shlyakh which could be called the action of the year. For the first time experts have decided to give the palm to the state, not to the oppositional rally. “For independent Belarus!” was a long-term action which started in Minsk on March 25, on Freedom Day, and ended on the day of Minsk’s liberation from the Nazi, July 3. Final concerts were held at two stages, near the national Library and in Minsk-1 airport. Dzmitry Kaldun, Iryna Darafeeva and other national singers performed at the concerts.

July 3 has been officially celebrated as Independence Day for 12 years already, though thousands of Belarusians still observing this day as the Day of liberation of Minsk. “I am a Minsk resident, and as far back as I can remember, July 3 was a holiday in Minsk all the time,” The Charter’97 coordinator Zmitser Bandarenka said. “Festivities under the slogan “FOR INDEPENDENT BELARUS!” could be assessed positively. People who have come into power in the country with the idea to restore the Soviet Union, after 12 years finally realized the significance of independence. In many cities of Belarus more than 200 concerts in support of the country’s sovereignty have taken place. This campaign could be too pompous, but for the first time dozens millions of dollars were used not for propaganda of a mythical “union state”, but for strengthening of patriotism. That is why thousands of opposition members have taken part in solemn events on the day of Minsk liberation”.

300,000 persons total have taken place in the rallies “For independent Belarus!” The greatest surprise was the end of Anzhalika Agurbash’s show. After the last song she shouted to the microphone “Long live Belarus!” Was it because she forgot the text, or on the contrary, she reminded the necessary works after so many years? It was an unquestionable artistic success.

Deceit of the year

It was difficult to choose a winner in this nomination. We are being deceived for many years. We have been promised decent salaries, free medical and education, allowances and housing for the needy, greater prospects and opportunities. Meanwhile, the country is as close to the economic collapse as never before, and people are on the verge of pauperism. But the most grandiose fraud comparable only to MMM and its faithful Lyonya Golubkov, was a notorious return of Soviet-time deposits which turned into dust.

In 1994 one of the central issues of the presidential candidate Lukashenka’s platform was “compensation of disappeared population’s money on deposits according to the currency exchange rate of ruble to dollar in 1985” (that is, one US dollar for one Soviet ruble). And notably, a day-dreamer and castle-builder Lukashenka promised to give back money partially in TV sets and refrigerators. He must have been imagining hundreds thousands of specially hired loaders puffing and carrying heavy refrigerators which were to be brought to every peasant’s hut… Deposits of everybody who lived in the Soviet Union burnt down. Soviet citizens had no choice. Every saved ruble they brought to a saving bank in hope to buy a refrigerator or something like that. Those who were lucky could buy a car.

In 1998 Alyaksandr Lukashenka issued a special decree in line with which compensations were to be paid by January 1, 2008. And today, when 14 years of Lukashenka’s absurd fantasies impossible even for David Copperfield to implement have passed, and the Belarusians have received no refrigerators or TV-sets and have kissed good-bye to irrational promises of their leader which never come true, they are invited to Belarusbank. As it turned out, the wise government headed by its wise leader has found a possibility to return money to them! But the exchange rate is strange to mention in a decent society… 999 Belarusian rubles are given for 500 Soviet rubles. Cost of metro ticket is 600 Belarusian rubles, just to give an example. It means that 10,000 Soviet rubles for which a two-room apartment could be taken in the 1980ies or two cars could be bought, is exchanged for less than $10. You have been putting aside money for years to buy an apartment? Just buy a piece of sausage and shut up. Unfortunately, that’s a position of the regime towards the people now.

But the problem could be solved. Economists tried to hint Lukashenka that it is possible to square accounts! Return the money in the form of square metres of state property or land. Any person would agree to receive for instance 2 hectares of land instead of his 10,000 rubles or a level in a new house. But Lukashenka does not want to listen to economists. It seems to him that the nation would willingly swallow everything starting from the piece of sausage for 10,000 Soviet rubles and ending with poverty against the background of pretentious ice palaces. Which is the strangest thing, it is still happening. Maybe it’s time to defend ourselves?

Forecast of the year

However, changes are taking place even in the mouldiest society. In mouldy Brezhnev-time Soviet Union, when the words “stagnation” and “sluggishness” were the only true definitions for the situation in the country, nobody could suppose that the mighty Soviet Union would collapse as a card house.

Changes in Belarus are inevitable. The country cannot exist in this situation any more. Even distribution of the stars says that changes are coming. According to astrologists, changes are to come soon: they are to start next year.

Russian astrologists Pavel Glob and Grigory Kvasha forecast that 2008 is to become the most difficult for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. He is to face conspiracies, economical instability and possible resign.

Grigory Kvasha believes that 2008 is to become a test for political leaders born in the Year of the Horse. Among them are Lukashenka, Viktor Yushchenko, Condoleezza Rice and Angela Merkel. Distribution of the stars for Lukashenka is the most unfavorable.

“All politicians born in the year of the Horse have chances to lose a lot and make many mistakes. It can affect the state, so they should better place somebody at their position. And Lukashenka’s situation is very dangerous. He has passed a karmic year once, in 1996, but rather unsuccessfully. He won’t be given to pass it for the second time. That is why Belarus will face a very serious and disturbing question next year,” Kvasha said. In 1996 deputies of the Supreme Council collected signatures for Lukashenka’s impeachment, and this procedure was to take place at the session. Lukashenka was rescued by Viktor Chernomyrdin, Egor Stroev and Gennadiy Seleznyov then. They landed in Minsk and after long talks persuaded soft-hearted Belarusian deputies not to destroy Lukashenka. According to Kvasha’s prediction, nobody would go to the rescue of Lukashenka next year.

Pavel Globa’s forecast almost coincides with Grigory Kvasha’s. But Globa has predicted details of Lukashenka’s reassignment. As said by him, Lukasheka will fall a victim of a quiet, creeping coup inside his entourage.

One can believe astrologists or not. But the springs of artificially suppressed ruble rate, economic crisis and human patience this year have been pressed to a limit. And they are to explode next year. It will explode without any astrological forecasts. The only chance for Lukashenka to prevent the explosion is finally to start reforms, release political prisoners and adopt 12 proposals of the EU, otherwise neither starts nor his guards would save him.