Allies’ meeting cancelled because Lukashenka asked to reduce gas price

Russian mass media state that the session of the supreme council of the “union state” is related to the fact that at the supreme moment the Belarusian side decided to include in the agenda issues which are obviously inappropriate for discussion in such a format, for instance, gas prices.

It was expected that Alyaksandr Lukashenka would visit Moscow on December 1. But the visit and the session of the state council have been postponed.

The official wording is that the sides couldn’t agree on the agenda. And according to one of the versions, there are no answers to the raised from Minsk questions so far. Someone from Lukashenka’s inner circle has even offered official correspondence on preparation of the scandalous session. “Formally, we were initiators of the rescheduling,” the high-ranking sources of “Izvestiya” in the Kremlin easily agree.

However there were more than reasons for that. The sources state that at the supreme moment the Belarusian side decided to include in the agenda issues which are obviously inappropriate for discussion in such a format, for instance, gas prices.

The budget plan of Belarus for the next year is based on the price of $140 per thousand cubic metres. And according to the forecasts, in 2009 it is to become much higher, about $200. It may be the reason why the Belarusian Vice Prime Minister Andrei Kabyakou stated recently that Minsk is set to initiate talks on decrease of gas prices because oil prices has dropped. That’s how they have initiated that.

“We see no reasons for reconsidering the contract in force,” sources in Gazprom told “Izvestiya” on Monday. This five-year contract attaches the gas price for Belarus to the average European price, with a reduction factor. It’s true, according to the existing formula of gas prices calculation, gas prices really depend on oil ones, but the oil price drop hasn’t influenced the average European gas price a lot. That’s because long-term indices over several months are taken into account. So, Gazprom sources summarize, Minsk cannot count on any reduce of prices according to agreements. It takes place automatically, according to the formula, and Belarus is unlikely to feel it before 2010.

In their turn, the Kremlin reminds that Belarus has asked a loan of $1 billion exactly to cover the future gas price increase. And it was received in the middle of autumn. So Belarus wanted both a billion and prices reduced? Besides, the Belarusian side hinted unambiguously that it is ready to take another loan for the same sum.

Other disputes were more likely a consequence. For instance, over the recent days Lukashenka insistently repeated (mostly in interviews to the European mass media) that the “union state” should be built “on egalitarian basis”. That is, experts continue, according to the principle “one state, one vote”. But in the economy, for instance, there is no equality, so such principles seem unjust as a minimum to Moscow. “the Belarusian side tried to replace the current working talks by a politicized approach, and we are not ready to explain once again publicly that one cannot put the cart before the horse,” the sources from the Kremlin explain reasons for rescheduling the session.

It is not a secret that in reality there is no union in the “union state” at all. But now all grievances have come to the top again. A rather new one is connected to the fact that Belarus (that means Lukashenka) hasn’t recognized the South Ossetia and Abkhazia yet. “Lavrov is defending him everywhere for a long time, and he…,” diplomats said forgetting about their half-words.

On Monday while diplomats of Moscow and Minsk exchanges mutual reproaches, it turned out that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed an order finalizing the construction of the second stage of the Baltic Pipeline System-2 (BPS-2). It is to connect Unecha (Bryansk region) with Ust-Luga (Leningrad oblast). It is expected that up to 50 million tons a year to be pumped through it. The term of construction is about 18 months.

The idea to construct BPS-2 appeared in the moment of a sharp dispute between Russia and Belarus when in the beginning of 2007 Europe was not received Russian oil from Druzhba pipeline for four days, as Belarus had claims for transit. The BPS-2 is an alternative to Druzhba, it is expected that with its help oil could be transited to Europe bypassing the territory of Belarus.