Does Belarusian regime want to deceive Gazprom?
10
9:09, — Economics
Belarus may drag on concluding bargains on selling Naftan and Polimir expecting Gazprom to slow down growth of prices for energy resources delivered to Belarus.
As informed by a deputy chairman of Belneftekhim concern Mikhail Asipenka at a press-conference yesterday, sale of Polimir and Naftan shares would take place only in the framework of a single economic complex, and only on such conditions motions to the government should be brought forward.
“They are working perfectly well separately, but Polimir is less attractive for foreign investors. Besides, these enterprises are united by one raw materials supply chain,” Asipenka explained the reason of uniting the two enterprises. However, this motivation could be viewed with certain skepticism, as many enterprises are connected in supply chains, but are not sold together,” “Ezhednavnik” writes.
It should be reminded that the decision about merger of Naftan and Polimir was taken in 2006. Then it was Polimir which was viewed as an object of potential investment by the joint stock company Rusneft and the joint stock company Lukojl. It its turn, Gazprom considered the enterprise as its possible purchase, but bringing it together it with Naftan ruined the game, the price grew automatically.
Now it looks like the client has got used to the idea of the tandem. So, as said by Mikhail Asipenka, before the end of this year offers on Naftan and Polimir privatization are to be received by the government. Only their assessment s expected. As informed by the deputy chairman of the concern, if necessary, that procedure would be carried out by an independent evaluator ABN Àmro, which told the price of Beltransgaz once. Asipenka told about possible conditions of sale: “Most likely, the share of an investor would be a contribution matching with the state budget, 50-50. We have understanding of potential buyers in this point”.
But there is no understanding of the desire to sell an oil refinery, once a serious ‘breadwinner’ for the budget. But it could be supposed where the heart of the matter is.
As “Ezhednevnik” was told by Yaraslau Ramanchuk, President of the Minsk-based Mizes Center “Strategy”, sale of the two enterprises as one package is taking place only because the buyer is satisfied with such a tandem. As the economist believes, in this case of Naftan and Polimir sale a scenario analogous to the pre-sale preparation of Beltransgaz could take place. That is, Belarus may drag on concluding bargains on selling Naftan and Polimir expecting Gazprom to slow down growth of prices for energy resources delivered to Belarus. At least, the economist expects either Gazprom or affiliated structure to be the buyer of the tandem.
According to Ramanchuk’s forecasts, the bargain could take place not earlier than 2010, as technical details of the negotiation process could divert attention of the Russians from harsher measures on energy pressure on Belarus. The most important thing there is not to discourage the buyer, but to start an exhausting coordination of technical details. As Yaraslau Ramanchuk notes, the Belarusian side has not been making harsh statements about disinclination to sell this or that object for a long time.
At the same time, the aim of naftan and Polimir sale is explained by Mizes Center head in a very simple way. It’s a desire to minimize energy resources price hike. And the Belarusian plants are to play a role of “paying off”.
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