What expects Belarus if Great Britain and Netherlands join US sanctions?

Now import of Russian hydrocarbons is compensated by export of Belarusian oil products to Europe. But what would happen with the Belarusian economy if tomorrow the Great Britain and the Netherlands join the US sanctions against Belnefrekhim?

Not later than May 23 Beltrasgaz is to pay for deliveries of natural gas in last month under the agreement with Gazprom. Belarus has spent for energy resources almost 2 billion dollars more than in the same period last year over the 1 quarter of the year 2008. Hydrocarbons from Russia (oil, gas and oil products) cost 3.8 billion dollars. Experts of “Zavtra tvoej strany” are worried about this pace.

Independent experts state that the price pressure by Russian suppliers of energy resources to Belarus gets more and more serious. In the first quarter of this year an average price for Russian oil has grown in 1.75 times as compared to the last year. The price for Russian oil products has grown by 1.7 times. And the cost of natural gas has grown by almost 20%.

Despite of the growing prices for energy resources, in the beginning of 2008 instead of economy of energy resources Belarus increased import of hydrocarbons to ensue its economic growth program. Oil import has grown 1.4 times, and oil products in 2.7 times.

This pace significantly worries independent experts, as it has brought about an obvious misbalance in trade with Russia. Adverse balance in trade with our main partner reached has record 3.1 billion dollars. Considering that prices for energy resources are still growing, and that Sidorski’s cabinet is set to fulfill plans of economy growth, the constant increase of this misbalance over the year is expected.

This adverse balance would be not as dangerous for any European country as for us, as Belarus has political risks beside to economic ones. Now import of Russian hydrocarbons is to a large extent compensated by export of Belarusian oil products to Europe.

In the beginning if the year our export was growing both in physical quantity and in cost. But what would happen with the Belarusian economy if tomorrow our main buyers of oil products, the Great Britain and the Netherlands, would succumb to persuasion of the US and join the sanctions against Belneftekhim?

But such a continuation of the situation is possible, experts believe. And the main thing is that the official Minsk is not ready for that, and is not going to get ready for that either.