Alyaksandr Sasnou: Sheiman will just disappear from Belarus

Alyaksandr Lukashenka dismissed State Secretary of the Security Council Viktar Sheiman and head of the Presidential Administration Henadz Nyavyhlas. What consequences can these events have?

Experts of “Zavtra Tvoei Strany” discuss the topic.

– Sheiman is the last Lyozna bison, and I don’t think it is easy for Lukashenka to part with him, it is not only Lyozna that ties them, – sociologist Alyaksandr Sasnou thinks. – From the other hand, I don’t think Sheiman has taken this dismissal easy and on his own will. It seems Lukashenka just makes him away and hides from his past affaires. While Nyavyhlas, who has come to power from lower positions, who has served obediently, was needed only to produce the appearance of a fair solving the problem. Having dismissed Sheiman, Lukashenka dismissed a person, who knew about very serious problems.

Alyaksandr Sasnou doesn’t think Viktar Sheiman will be offered a high post.

– I think Sheiman will just disappear, not physically but legally, he will disappear from Belarus, ¬ – former minister of labour Alyaksandr Sasnou says. – It would be uncomfortable for him to stay here.

– One of the versions of the events on 4 July was aggravation of struggle in the ruling group of Belarus, and dismissals of Sheiman and Nyavyhlas is able to prove this version, ¬– analytic Raman Yakauleuski notes. – I think nothing will change, the only thing that can change in work of the Presidential Administration is that 47-year old Alyaksandr Zimouski can succeed the post of Nayvyhlas. If it happens so, it, like appearance of 32-year old Yancheuski as an aide to Lukashenka, will mean another renewal of Lukashenka’s team.

However, if liberalisation is meant by changes, it won’t be so, the expert emphasises, “the character of the regime won’t change, by this cardinal decision Lukashenka demonstrates he runs the state as before.”

– One can’t expect these dismissals will provoke the changes, the democratic society talks about, because the very system of power doesn’t change, it is still based on views of one man, – politologist Alyaksandr Klaskouski believes. – Another case, that the foundation of the system becomes less firm, it is connected, first of all, with external forces, namely pressure of both the West and Russia, and the main thing is that economic destabilisation, decline of living standards are close, and it pushes to manoeuvring, to readiness to sacrifice some ideological principles.

Here, according to Alyaksandr Klaskouski, a necessity of certain renewal of staff arises.

– It is not by occasion that experts say about young grouping, which is becoming stronger, in Lukashenka’s team, – the politologist says. – In this connection they remind names of his elder son Viktar Lukashenka, and some other names, in particular, Natallya Pyatkevich.

– I think the separation into groups is rather relative, we can’t say these people manifest another ideology, another political doctrine, but they may be more pragmatic and flexible in some situations, – the expert from “Zavtra Tvoei Strany” thinks. – It is probably an evidence of certain reformatting of power and strengthening of the positions of the youth in Lukashenka’s inner circle.