Belarus on the verge of foreign currency deficiency again

The decrease in the Russian oil supplies will cause deficiency of foreign currency in currency exchange offices.

In the fourth quarter the Russian oil supplies to Belarus will decrease to 4 mln tons from 5,3 mln in the third quarter.

The ambassador of Russia to Belarus Aliaksandr Surykau explains the decrease in the Russian oil supplies with “the oversupply of hydrocarbon raw materials in the previous periods”. However an economist Lev Margolin links it to the dubious export of “solvents” and “thinners” from Belarus, which according to unofficial estimations caused the Russian budget to lose 2 billion USDs in 2012.

- Russia and Putin don’t forgive such things, - the economist is sure.

The decrease in the oil supplies, in his opinion, is the punishment not even for the past sins, when Belarusian authorities used the loophole in the legislation – the other day the Belarusian side blocked the suggestions put forward by Russia to the Council of the Eurasian economic commission, which would allow to eliminate the manufacturing and export of solvents, thinners, lubricating oils and biodiesel fuel.

The decrease in the Russian oil supplies will negatively affect the Belarusian economy:

- After losing the “hen”, which had been giving “golden eggs” to the Belarusians, the decrease in the oil supplies (oil products are one of the main products exported to the West) can seriously affect the trade balance, - the expert foresees.

The political scientist Valer Karbalevich adds, that the consequences can be really regrettable for Belarus also for the reason that Ukraine started the investigation which can lead to cessation of the biodiesel import from Belarus.

- It is a matter of increasing the tariffs for Belarusian oil products, which are supplied to Ukraine and there are a lot of such products. This would mean a cutback in revenues as the oil products export, including solvents and thinners, accounts for up to 40% of all the export income, - the expert notes.

The balance of trade would become negative and that could have an effect on the Belarusian rubble exchange rate as there would be a foreign currency deficiency, in exchange offices as well, - this is Valer Karbalevich’s forecast.