Kalinkina: Lukashenka will be happy to shelter al-Assad and his family

Russian media are asking themselves: whether the first Syrian lady Asma al-Assad will find asylum in Russia?

There is unconfirmed information that the "Desert Rose", as Syrians once called Asma for her beauty and education, is hiding in Moscow along with her children. In favor of this choice speaks the fact that the Syrian dictator's wife, like himself, is denied to enter the European Union. The regime is accused in the deaths of thousands of civilians, and nobody will accept the murderers in the West, reports "Radio Svaboda".

According to independent Russian media, the Kremlin has long reputation of a "refuge of the world’s outcasts." Earlier, the Russian government granted asylum to the wife, son, and brother of the deposed Yugoslav ruler Slobodan Milosevic, who still live in Barvikha. For some time the former GDR leader Eric Honecker and his wife were hiding in Russia. In the XXI century the former governor of Adjara Aslan Abashidze and the ex-governor of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akayev with his family have found there their refuge.

Special relations with the ruler of Syria are proven by the fact, that the Kremlin's is unwilling to support any formal sanctions against Damascus.

In their turn, Russian Middle East experts believe that it is unlikely for a family of Bashar al-Assad to take refuge in Belarus. According to analysts, Alexander Lukashenka, in spite of the warm relations with the Syrian ruler, will not go to a confrontation with the more important Middle East allies, such as Qatar, from where Belarus receives real investments.

However, in the opinion of the journalist Svetlana Kalinkina, one cannot speak about some geopolitical strategy of Lukashenka, so the emergence of new international outcasts in Belarus is quite possible:

"I think that the probability remains, because the Belarusian authorities do not follow any specific guidelines. We can be friends with both Israel and Iran, Syria and Qatar. In my opinion, everything will depend on Moscow. If Moscow will ask Lukashenka to accept Asad and his family, the president will be happy to do so. After all, the fact that we accepted Kurmanbek Bakiyev or Milosevic’s family in their time - it increases Lukashenka’s importance for international politics. Belarusian authorities will not look on some aspects of moral and, if there is such a need, they will accept Assad, or Ahmadinejad, or Chavez, or all of them, because, I will say it again,  there is no moral and political principles in this sense. But there is money and economy - these people are not poor, they come with money, with connections. They are trying here in Minsk to somehow decide the fates of their countries. So, in some sense, it will be even beneficial for Minsk. After all, if Russia will make such a step, there will be a very great response and, possibly, quite serious political consequences for the Kremlin. Meanwhile Minsk do not play a big role. It is unlikely that because of the acceptance of Assad or Bakiyev, Qatar or Jordan will break all the relations. Therefore, Lukashenka could take such a step".

Kurmanbek Bakiyev, deposed leader of Kyrgyzstan, accused in the suppression of protests and numerous casualties, is hiding in Belarus for more than two years. Bakiyev and his family were granted asylum on the personal order of Lukashenka.