Ruble devaluation speed increases twofold
8:05, — Economics
Belarusians are offered to celebrate the fact they are still alive.
The government failed to keep the country's gold and foreign currency reserves at the expected level by the end of the year. Without the external aid, the reserves may drop to critical 5 billion dollars next year, Salidarnasts reports.
“The Belarusian ruble is overvalued against the dollar,” head of the analytical centre Strategy Leanid Zaika thinks. “It is overvalued by about 30%. Belarusians think they earn $500, but in practice they have only 350. One cannot deceive economy despite all efforts of the government. It compensates these 30% with the price growth,” he says.
He thinks rather radical measures are needed to improve the situation.
“The situation can be improved, if the government decreases salaries for ministers by 20% on January 1, stops subsidising agriculture and refuses to spend 13 billion dollars on modernisation in 2014. The Belarusian ruble continues to devalue unless these measures are taken,” Leanid Zaika supposes.
The economist recommends Belarusians to celebrate the fact they are still alive.
“I advise to take a picture of your New Year's Eve dinner, because with the salary growth of 3-4% the next year, you won't have the variety of products you have this year. This year's dinner will be a standard,” he says.
Doctor of economics Barys Zhaliba thinks the Belarusian ruble will continue to fall the next year, and the speed of the decline will increase.
“Statistical data say that the ruble devaluation was 100 rubles per month, but now it's two times faster – 100 per two weeks. The devaluation rate may speed up further,” he says.
He recommends to prepare for the New Year's Eve without panic.
“But the prospects are vague, to put it mildly. Our economy cannot exist without external support. We failed to keep the gold and foreign currency reserves at the expected level at the end of the year. Without external aid, they can fell to critical 5 billion dollars the next year. A large-scale privatisation campaign can be a way out.
Without the external support or privatisation, the scenario of 2011 will repeat the next year,” Barys Zhaliba said.
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