Barys Zhaliba: New loan for Belarus will end in a year

Sores of the Belarusian economy will open in a year.

Putin promised to give Belarus a loan of up to 2 billion dollars. Lukashenka assured the money wouldn't be “eaten”.

“By the way, it is the aid to support the ruble exchange rate and, of course, the country's economy,” the ruler said.

Doctor of Economics, Prof. Barys Zhaliba refutes Lukashenka's words:

“The main aim of Lukashenka's visits to Sochi and Moscow was achieved. The rest things they discussed and signed are secondary,” the analysts said to Salidarnasts. “He received another loan of 2 billion. Without it there would be a sharp devaluation and the scenario of 2011 would repeat.”

The expert thinks Russia again threw a lifebuoy to Belarus's economy. But the worst thing is that the loan will be used as before.

“This money will be added to the gold and foreign currency reserves. It will be used, first of all, for foreign exchange interventions to cover the deficit of the foreign currency that occurred due to the negative trade balance and payment balance,” Barys Zhaliba explains. “In other words, we see an intention to eat this money, to spend it on current needs instead of spending the foreign currency on modernisation, investments, updating fixed assets of enterprises, making our products more competitive and clearing excess inventories. We can't conclude from Lukashenka's statement that the loan will be spent on it.”

The economist reminds that Russia already gave Belarus two loans of $3 billion (in 2007 and 2011).

A smaller size of the new loan can be explained by Russia's decision to give Ukraine 15 billion dollars, according to the economist.

“Three billion dollars were the minimum sum to keep our economy afloat,” Barys Zhaliba said.

Russia's new loan to Belarus will end in a year or in 18 months at best.

“The sores of the Belarusian economy will open again. We again will beg for money. There are no prospects on improving the country's economy except for getting a new loan by 2015. Our government tries to survive in this way,” the expert summed up.

Photo: Radio Svaboda