Ukrainian political scientist: Yanukovich has no way back

Signing the Association Agreement will not resolve the political crisis in Ukraine.

The head of the Center for Applied Political Research Penta Volodymir Fesenko shared the opinion in an interview to the charter97.org web-site.

“The situation is very unstable in Ukraine now, and there is no domineering scenario for the future development of events. The authorities are trying to implement the scenario of lingering with the goal of Maydan’s gradual decreasing in scale, weakening of protest activities, including due to the approaching holidays. Simultaneously targeted pressure will be put on the opposition and the protesters, local arrests may take place, gradual unblocking of state institutions and gradual normalization and stabilization of the situation accordingly. This is the scenario of the authorities”, - the political scientist pointed out.

The expert added that another scenario is the scenario of the opposition – to try and compel the authorities to make concessions and negotiate by the means of keeping and expanding Maydan’s activities.

“The goal of such negotiations is to agree on holding pre-term presidential and parliamentary elections. This scenario seems to me less possible so far, but it may also take place. Also a crisis scenario is possible with the use of force on the part of either side. Spontaneous conflicts may lead to negative consequences from the point of view of long-term and even mid-term social stability in the country. The use of violence by one part will inevitably lead to the other part using violence as well. It is clear that in this case the authorities will have more opportunities, but this does not mean that they will get the full victory, but will face the emergence of oppositional activities and protests in other forms, including violent. So different options of how the event will develop are still possible”, - Volodymir Fesenko believes.

The political scientist emphasized that now the main problem is not the problem of signing the Association Agreement.

“It was the problem, on which a compromise could be found before the summit in Vilnius. Starting from 1 December people are in the street not because they were discontent about the failure of the agreement’s signing in Vilnius. The demand of European integration remains urgent, but it is not the main one. People came out to protest because they were discontent of the brutal dispersal of the EuroMaydan in the night on 30 December. This is the main reason for protests. But naturally the opposition has used these protests in order to turn them against the authorities and put forwards political demands. Now the demands of the change of authorities and holding pre-term elections are in the first place. This means that Yanukovich no longer has the way back, back has the way aside. In particular, to the side of Russia”, - the expert concluded.

We would remind that president Viktar Yanukovich did not sign the agreement on association of Ukraine and the EU at the Eastern Partnership in Vilnius, which took place on 28-29 November.

The country’s residents responded to the failure to sign the agreement with an unprecedented protest manifestation. It has been taking place all over Ukraine for almost two weeks and sets records in numbers of participants. The high point of the action, which is already being called a eurorevolution, were the events in Kiev on Sunday in response to brutal dispersal of the EuroMaydan by riot police. Between 500 and 700 thousand people took part in the peaceful protest in Nezalezhnosti Square. Clashes took place near Yanukovich’s residence, provoked by couple hundred unidentified hooligans wearing masks. The opposition condemned the provocateurs. The protests manifestation goes on.