Roman Bezsmertny: Lukashenka’s regime is the stopper of the region’s development

Ukraine’s former ambassador to Belarus Roman Bezsmertny is convinced that it is utterly difficult to make forecasts about the outcome of Lukashenka’s visit to Kyiv.

In an interview to charter97.org, Roman Bezsmertny pointed out that the situation with the bilateral relations is unpleasant for both parties. Moreover, Moscow acts as an unseen participant of the dialog.

The politician also believes that the Belarusian regime slows down the development of the entire region, from the Black to the Baltic seas, and functions as a “stopper”.

- Roman Petrovich, Aliaksandar Lukashenka arrived to Kyiv. What should we expect from this visit?

- It is utterly difficult to make forecasts; I can only speak about general characteristics of the situation. It is unpleasant for both parties. For Ukraine, it is because today turnover of goods on the black market between the two states has reached such scales that it is no longer hidden and now affects serious segments of the market.

Officially, Belarusian products stand for 36 percent of the Ukrainian market of clear fuel and lubricants. False. The figure has surpassed 50 percent. Nearly half is illegally imported. As for the turnover of dairy products, the flywheels of the black market are rotating so fast that we need immediate actions and answers. And we can get these answers only when the border issue is settled. This is decisive. On the one hand, an inexistent debt is quoted (and its amount differs all the time), on the other, the question of exchange of ratification charters is still hanging in the air. This question could have been settled and the turnover could have been regulated for a long time ago. In the present situation, it lies in the interests of the both parties, but let’s not forget that Moscow is an unseen participant of the dialog.

Belarus’ membership in the Customs Union and Ukraine’s movement, however lame, toward European integration both show that the difference in the directions of integration processes in Ukraine and Belarus makes it possible for a third party to get involved.

- Ukraine and Belarus take part in the Eastern Partnership, even though to a different degree…

- Today, if Ukraine wants to show actual activity in the European politics, it should take part in the Eastern Partnership. Initially the thoroughly elaborated scheme gave Ukraine a crucial role in the Eastern Partnership. It was clear that all members of the Eastern Partnership should join Ukraine in its movement toward European integration. Presently, the position of the Ukrainian powers has basically led to the demise of the Eastern Partnership. One could blame Lukashenka or Aliev, but they are mere derivatives from Yanukovich’s position. I know very well that European politicians have agreed to this project, first of all, to help Ukraine show actual integration to Europe, or take control of the situation. And now, before the summit in Vilnius, the most important question is how Ukraine can deal with the Eastern Partnership issues, how effective the work of the project will turn.

It is crucial to emphasize one thing. If we look at historical retrospective, the people that populate Ukraine had prospects only when a common space could be created, let’s say between Vilnius and Simferopol. This space had certain European traits and parameters only when it was consolidated. And if it happens again, all these countries will benefit from being a part of the E.U. Otherwise Belarus will be the one to suffer most, then Ukraine. The Baltic states will handle their autonomous state in the E.U.

- Will they benefit if other countries become a part of the E.U.?

- Undoubtedly. You can’t change history – Medieval times, USSR. It has reflected on the ethnicities, economics of the countries, their interior humanitarian sphere. And it is obvious that the Europeans and these countries stood by the idea of the Eastern Partnership and didn’t realize that by doing so, they gave Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova a chance to enter the European family. I cannot tell why this question is not getting the attention it deserves from the Ukrainian powers, but this project definitely has flaws from the Ukrainian side.

- Belarusian foreign minister Uladzimir Makiei may be invited to the summit in Vilnius. Makiei is on the list of the Belarusian officials that are barred to enter the E.U. What do you think about this situation?

- Relations between Europe’s civilized states and countries like Belarus or the incumbent powers in Ukraine are always built on the principle “bad peace is better than good war”. The Europeans realize that the situation should be affected somehow. That is why relations of the European states with such countries will develop according to a sinusoid: periods of worsening will follow after periods of improvements. But in the end of the day, a relation, an impact is needed.

So for me it was not a surprise that when Lukashenka’s actions damaged these relations in 2010, we started to look for a way to continue the dialog. Everything could be funneled down to technical consultations while still maintaining a form of a conversation. Lithuanian politicians played the leading role and helped settle these issues before the start of the dialog. They are not settled for good, but just for some time, and I believe that it is right at least for Ukraine. Moreover, we might succeed in bringing Yanukovich to the E.U. And this is exactly how it happens at the summit: he is led by hand, and the doors are shut open in front of the 46-million nation. It results in a positive impact on Ukraine. If this issue is not solved in Vilnius, there’ll be a slowdown for Ukraine in European and home politics which will cause economic failures.

- Can Lukashenka be regarded Moscow’s conductor in the Kremlin-Kyiv relationship?

- No, I have never seen Lukashenka as someone who forms his political relations with Kyiv as a middleman, Moscow’s conductor. He uses Moscow, as well as Kyiv, in his interests. He fulfills the conditions necessary for the survival of the so-called union state and Customs union only as much as he needs himself. At the same time he puts his country under the feet of the Kremlin. From this point of view, Yanukovich looks more independent and patriotic. No matter what they say, he doesn’t let Russia influence the country. In fact, his politics with Moscow is the same as his politics with the E.U. He believes that Ukraine is his state, his khaganate.

- You mentioned the region between the two seas. Speaking about the axis Ukraine-Belarus-Lithuania, what joint project can be discussed?

- At this moment it is impossible to develop a complete project. We can talk about the curve Kyiv-Vilnius, even in terms of the market, first of all energy market. Even today we can build this curve with Warsaw. What does Belarus mean to this system and why am I speaking about a curve? It is crucial to solve the question of the Belarusian totalitarian regime.

I cannot put up with the fact that there is this “reservation” in the heart of Europe. So I build this system for myself to find a mechanism that can count all ways to eliminate this totalitarian regime. The region loses because Lukashenka’s regime functions as a stopper. It is crystal clear to me that Moscow uses him in its interests. It creates an additional factor of pressure on the Baltic states and Ukraine. Lukashenka benefits from this blackmailing. And the problems of energy and transportation sectors cannot be solved while the regime exists. I don’t even mention the scope of humanitarian questions, it is simply blocked.

What is happening to the human factor in the region? The Baltic states regard themselves Europeans, they are happy to leave Russia forever. Not the USSR, Russia. Meanwhile, the Belarusians have bent under the plough with Lukashenka on top. They are ashamed of their close relation with the Ukrainians because they consider themselves slavonized Lithuanians. They dream of getting closer to Lithuania and escape the union with Russia. Ukraine has realized that it’s no use to count on someone else’s help, and that’s why Yanukovich’s regime has emerged – It needs neither Moscow, nor Brussels. All that creates a system that freezes the situation of Belarus and Ukraine.

But if we take this territory, even in terms of human relations, it could have a big potential simply with a dialog Belarus-Ukraine-Lithuania-Poland. If we talk about all dimensions, from human to political, Lukashenka’s regime is a problem for Europe. So when I speak about this commonality of the states, I mean that sooner or later Lukashenka’s regime will fall, but in order to build relationships we need to create a coordinating information system. Recent events in Moldova and Georgia’s lessons have already given all the answers. Sooner or later the day of truth will come – it is the day of elections. If elections are fair, they bring any regime into a realistic state.

Photographs from ru.tsn.ua