Leanid Zlotnikau: Problem of export cannot be solved without devaluation

After the devaluation of 2009, Belarusians have a tradition to visit currency exchange offices in December.

It is not ruled out that the devaluation expectations may become close to the reality as never before.

Belarusians discuss forthcoming economic problems more and more often. This year's traditional December expectations of devaluation are boosted by economic news from Russia.

“We will definitely have the same situation as Russia has because we have close ties. Of course, people should buy foreign currency. How can you save your money in other ways?” a resident of Mahilou told a BelaPAN correspondent in a man-in-the-street interview.

Do fears of devaluation caused by the Russian ruble fall have grounds? What sectors of the Belarusian economy suffer most losses due to the economic crisis in Russia? Economist Leanid Zlotnikau answers the questions.

“The problem of the Belarusian ruble devaluation appeared long before the crisis in Russia. The exchange rate of our currency against the dollar is artificiality overvalued. The government spent foreign loans to keep the required ruble rate. The Belarusian economy continues to consume more than it produces. In addition to these problems, we have a sharp devaluation of the Russian ruble,” the economist says.

According to Leanid Zlotnikau, the situation seems favourable for an ordinary Belarusian consumer, but it won't last long.

“Many Belarusians rushed to Russia to buy goods, firstly cars and now food,” he says.

The Belarusian companies that export their products to Russia are losers in the game.

“We don't have significant losses so far. The situation is favourable for some people, while others lose something. But it won't last long,” the economic is sure.

Leanid Zlotnikau thinks the authorities and manufacturers have a difficult choice. Losing the Russian market threaten exporters with bankruptcy and halt of production. We may see these problems next year.

“The ruble devaluation is needed to solve the export problem. Manufacturers will suffer losses unless the rate of the Belarusian ruble reaches the Russian ruble rate, which is going to happen eventually,” he said.