After Russian ruble’s crash, Belarusian ruble’s crash will follow

Any moment the Belarusian ruble can take a nose-dive of a landslide devaluation.

Such an opinion has been expressed by an economist Barys Zhaliba. He believes that as a result of the new policy of the Russian Central Bank, the Russian ruble is to continue its fall, and thus the economic situation is Belarus is to deteriorate in the future.

- How will “the free flotation” of the Russian currency influence the Belarusian economy?

- It will be a negative influence. Just look: the Russian bank has spent $30 bn from its reserves in October, in order to make the Russian ruble’s devaluation not so sharp, though it turned out to be sharp anyway, 25% since the beginning of the year. And they probably realized that if they would spend their reserves at such a pace, soon they will simply burn money. So he Central Bank decided not to carry out exchange rate intervention at all, and set the ruble at the point of balance between supply and demand at the exchange and in the Russian over-the-counter exchange market.

- For how long will the fall of the Russian ruble continue?

- At least one more currency exchange jump in devaluation could be expected, it is hard to say whether it will be big, it depends on the situation at the exchange. The exchange rate could grow by one Russian ruble more or even two. And it is bad for us, as you understand. Our export is to suffer even more. It will depreciate in terms of currency equivalent. There are good reasons why the Agriculture Ministry told that we have increased exports in physical terms half as much again, but after conversion of the proceeds in Russian rubles into dollars, it became less than before. So the free floating of the Russian ruble is negative for us. The situation could be unpredictable with currencies, but the Russian ruble would not strengthen in any way, on the contrary, it is to become weaker for sure.

- Is the National Bank able to control the situation with the Belarusian ruble in such conditions? Will a moment come when the Belarusian ruble is going to fall after the Russian one?

- The overall situation is negative for Russia, and accordingly, for Belarus, for the entire next year. In connection with declining oil prices, the possibilities of Moscow to grant credit support to Belarus are reducing, as well as possibilities to offer us a so-called energy grant, cheap oil and gas. And without such a support at any moment our ruble can take a nose-dive of a landslide devaluation as well.