Portnikov: Russia is close to verge of survival and cannot feed Lukashenka

The Belarusian dictator continues his traditional practice of blackmailing Russia in exchange for preferences.

Ukrainian politologist Vitaly Portnikov calls Belarusian ruler's anti-Russian remarks “blackmail” and asks not to confuse them with independence and courage. Aliaksandr Lukashenka said ahead of his visit to Moscow that Russia's policy on restricting the import of Belarusian products to Russia was “stupid and pointless” and demanded to use dollars in trade with Russia.

Portnikov recalls that under Yeltsin's rule, Lukashenka used political pressure, played the role of an alternative political idol and even dared meet with top officials of Russia's regions. In Putin's Russia. Aliaksandr Lukashenka chose economic pressure, Radio Svaboda reports.

“Russia doesn't allow Belarus to sell European products in Belarusian packing on the Russian market, so Lukashenka imposes restrictions on the transit of Russian goods from the Kaliningrad Oblast via Belarus.

Russia bans Belarus to transit goods to Kazakhstan, and Lukashenka proposes to broadcast Ukraine's First National Channel in Belarus. Russia says this behaviour is dangerous, but Lukashenka meets with Poroshenko and discuss the Belarusian-Ukrainian television,” Portnikov says.

None of the decisions is final, the politologist notes. It's possible that the process goes no further than just words.

Lukashenka uses his traditional approaches, but he doesn't take into account that Russia won't have enough money to pay for his ambitions. This is the main difference in the current situation, Portnikov thinks.

“Russia could always afford its money and resources to extinguish Belarusian fire. But the day will come in a week, in a month or two when Russia won't have money to satisfy Belarus's needs.

The Russian Federation has found itself on the verge of economic and political survival. All actions taken by Russia to tackle financial crisis will actually lead to a deeper economic crisis, the complete collapse of the Russian economy and serious problems. It's possible that the political regime will change and the Russian state will be transformed to disappear from the political map of the world in the current political borders.

It may be so that Lukashenka will blackmail Russia and it won't be able to answer. It will just shut its borders, carry out subversive operations in Belarus to overthrow Lukashenka and appoint a more loyal president.

Russia can stop reacting to Lukashenka's blackmail and begin to struggle with him as an undesirable partner,” Vitaly Portnikov said.