Yermakova won’t keep ruble without foreign loans

New loans are needed for keeping the current pace of devaluation.

Such an opinion has been expressed by a financial analyst of Alpari’s official partner in Minsk Vadzim Yosub.

He stated that under the influence of a number of factors the exchange rate of the Russian ruble to the US dollar is continuing to decline. “This trend has several reasons, including the oil price drop, capital export from Russia. Besides, having no opportunity to raise resources from abroad in the conditions of the sanctions, Russian companies are accumulating currency positions in order to pay off the debts,” the expert said.

Last week the official exchange rate in Russia reached 53-54 rubles per dollar. In this situation in order to maintain the current pace of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble to a dollar, new loans would be needed, Yosub believes. “Receiving loans, with the present regime of exchange rate formation it would be possible to endure to the elections in Belarus,” he said.

At the same time, the expert noted,the opportunities to take new loans for Belarus are limited today. “The question lies in the sources of loans. Considering the current economic situation in Russia, it is quite an open question whether it could be possible to obtain even a political credit in Moscow,” Yosub believes.

We remind that after signing a treaty on creation of the Eurasian economic union in May 2014, Russia gave Belarus an inter-state loan of $2 bn. Besides, in autumn of this year the Belarusian government addressed the International Monetary Fund for a new loan.

The head of the IMF mission in Belarus David Hoffman who visited Minsk in late October stated that the Fund was ready to consider a possibility to sign a new credit program in case the Belarusian authorities would make resolute steps of structural reforming the economy.

Meanwhile, Belarusian analysts believe that the leadership of Belarus is not ready to go the length of structural changes in the economy, recommended by the IMF. According to experts, a more likely variant is drawing currency resources through placing Eurobonds in international markets of capital.

Thanks to placing Eurobonds in European market, in 2010-2011 Belarus drew $1.8 bn. In the framework of the Belarusian-British investment forum held in London on November 12, representatives of Belarus discussed with investors a possibility to place a new issue of debt securities.

According to the plans of the government, in 2015 Belarus can place sovereign Eurobonds for $3 bn. In addition, the Development Bank of Belarus plans to issue Eurobonds for at least $500 mln.