Yakauleuski: Belarus's defence industry can't replace loss of Ukraine for Russian military-industrial complex

The defence sector of Belarus cannot compensate Moscow for the losses from breaking relations in this area with Kyiv.

Political observer Raman Yakauleuski spoke to charter97.org about the visit of Dmitry Rogozin to Belarus.

“Some experts think broken ties with Ukraine will hit the Russian military-industrial complex more than western sanctions. The army re-armament programme can be considered to be closed,” he said.

The observer emphasised that Russia's dependence on cooperation with Ukraine is really critical in a number of sectors – rocket and space sector, aviation and ship building.

“It explains the increased nervousness of, for example, Dmitry Rogozin. Many noticed it. He has held a number of meetings with leaders of Russian biggest military companies for the last few days to discuss how to minimise the consequences of imposing sanctions by Ukraine rather than how to bypass possible western sanctions. The 'Ukrainian trace' can be noticed in more than 50% of ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, which, in turn, carry two thirds of warheads,” Yakauleuski added.

The observer doesn't think Lukashenka's remarks on “actions in the interests of Russia” after his meeting with Turchynov were a return to the policy of balancing.

“Though being one of the Kremlin's favourites, Rogozin is not the person, with whom Lukashenka could swing the pendulum balancing between Moscow and the West. Belarus's defence sector cannot compensate Russia for the damage from the broken relations with Ukraine in this sphere. By the way, the breakup will also influence the level of cooperation of the former Soviet military-industrial complex and, apparently, some Belarusian enterprises, which still remain a part of the military-industrial complex. The impact will be negative. Some time ago, in the time of Kyiv's romantic attitude to NATO, Moscow threatened to break cooperative ties with Ukrainian defence enterprises. Now, it seems to be scared of losing Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea,” he supposes.

Yakauleuski added Rogozin's visit is mainly connected with intentions to buy a number of Belarusian military enterprises interesting for the Russians in order not to spend money on creating new ones.

“I don't rule out the possibility that the Kremlin's envoy can face some new approaches in Belarus that can alert him. Maneuvers to bypass the western sanctions through Belarus products are unlikely, but Belarus faced western sanctions before Russia. Some Chinese prospects for selling joint products are possible,” the observer summed up.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin had a meeting in Minsk today to discuss closer military and industrial cooperation between Belarus and Russia given the current situation in Ukraine.