Barys Zhaliba: We are close to landslide devaluation line

Gold and foreign exchange reserves’ fall by 1bn $ has brought nearer a ruble’s collapse according to the scenario of the year 2011.

In this way Barys Zhaliba, Doctor of Economics, comments to charter97.org on the fall of gold/fx reserves by 1 bn $ over the quarter.

“Gold and foreign exchange reserves have decreased firstly due to decrease of petrochemichals and potassium fertilizers’ export. And these are the two main export items, which is the primarily source of gold and foreign reserves supply. Secondly, the state refunds debts, primarily to the International Monetary Fund, and to other states as well. And thirdly, the National Bank has to carry out gradual devaluation, for it not to be abrupt. It is done thanks to spending gold and foreign reserves at the foreign exchange. These three factors have decreased the reserves,” he explained.

According to the economist, it is “to have an influence on the economic situation of Belarus in the most negative way.

“The reserves could be increased by Russian loans, but I do not see that so far. The EurAsEc Anti-Crisis Fund has paused the last 6th tranche till autumn, and the first tranche of the 2 bn of the Russian loan was given in December last year, and now everything is still. It means there are no external sources. If nothing changes, the gold and foreign exchange reserves are to decrease and reach the critical line, which was in 2011, when the currency crisis took place. It was about 5 bn dollars. Now its size is about 5.7 bn dollars. That is, the gold and foreign currency reserves’ melting by one billion dollars has brought closer the devaluation according to the scenario of 2011,” Barys Zhaliba stressed.

We remind that the gold and foreign currency reserves of Belarus have decreased by 428.5 ml dollars in March and by April 1 they were equal to 5715.10 mln US dollars, according to the IMF.

The decrease of the gold and foreign currency reserves was 935.76 mln dollars.