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22.04.2014

Miasnikovich is eyewashing

11:21, — Economics

Miasnikovich is eyewashing

Government has bragged about GDP grown, which is not there.

In the press-release, spread out on 18 April, Belarusian government reported of the revitalization of Belarusian economy and claimed GDP growth of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2014. The premature bragging was noticed by a Belarusian blogger sergiscorp.

The government speaks of stabilization in industry and gives data for growth in industrial outputs in March by 11.4%, however for some reason it compares it not with March 2013, but February 2014.

The meaning of growth indicators is completely distorted. March normally shows growth against February. This is called the season factor. In our case it is more correct to compare March to March. There we will see a surprise! It turns out that industrial output in March has grown by only 0.7%... The quarter result in industrial output is 96.6%, which means a 3.4% drop, - the blogger reports.

The text does not directly speak of agriculture, but 13.4% of growth is also a growth in March against February. Huh! March against March in its turn shows a drop by almost 6%, - sergiscorp adds.

The reason to draw growth on the outcomes of the first quarter emerged in another sector. To be precise, two of them. These are investments and wholesale trade. I have a suspicion that some expensive thing for the Belarusian nuclear power plant was imported into the country, so there was growth in investments, - the blogger assumes.

Wholesale trade grew due to the growth of sales in potassium. The transit of goods by railroads has also been growing recently. In any case, the growth by a quarter allowed the government to add up to the cherished positive GDP figure of the first three months, - blogger sergiscorp finishes the analysis of the press-release.


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