Sociology under Dictatorship

In Belarus, the vote count is completely closed from independent observers and tightly controlled by the executive power.

In fact, finding out how people voted is almost impossible.

It is also possible to measure the real support of politicians conducting surveys. But it is extremely difficult to do. Permission to work in the country has been granted only to pro-government sociological services. They regularly submit results reflecting growth, progress, stability and a high level of support... The "opinion polls" they conduct during election campaigns simply repeat the figures made public by Yarmoshyna.

But there are also independent sociologists. Unfortunately, in the case of Belarus, independent sociology on elections and the ratings of politicians is offered by only one organization - IISEPS headed by Aleh Manayeu. It should be noted that all the studies by the Institute registered in Lithuania are conducted illegally. However, this does not prevent the official media to replicate the results of IISEPS research and refer to their numbers, as happened in 2010. Let me remind you, according to the IISEPS, Lukashenka in 2010 received the 'support' of 50+ 1% of voters. In fact, this meant that although Lukashenka was elected with the violations of the law, he is quite legitimate, because he received the "support" of the majority. This also meant that there was not to be the second round and thus the imprisoned by the KGB politicians are already ex-candidates. If the support was below 50% - the second round would be needed, and not holding it would mean not just have the authorities elected in breach of the law, but them being illegal and illegitimate in principle.

This way, directly from the independent Belarusian sociologists citizens and governments of democratic countries received confirmation of the legality and legitimacy of the current government. Despite the non-recognition of the election, the de facto rule of Lukashenka is recognized by the international community as legitimate (supported by the majority of the people, which is confirmed by the data of the IISEPS opinion polls). The independent sociological research results are generally accepted as being absolutely reliable.

But should the conclusions of Mr. Manayeu be trusted?

Statements made by Aleh Manayeu after the election campaign of 2012 dashed the credibility of the IISEPS statements for good.

In 2012, a campaign of election boycott was held. Across the country, the failure of turnout was recorded by hundreds of independent observers. But now it's not about how successful the campaign was, but the objectivity of the sociological data. I will just give you two IISEPS statements about the election campaign of 2012.

First. Almost immediately after the vote, Mr Manayeu said that the total turnout was 66.4% of voters. The statement was spread by both pro-government and independent media. Manayeu's statement recorded the failure of the opposition boycott campaign and the actual legality of the election of the parliament as a whole.

Second. Three months later the IISEPS bulletin featured the following explanation:

"Labour migration in Belarus is 600 to 1 million people. "With the payroll number of voters being 7 million, the turnout figures will be recorded by the observers at the level of 9 -14% lower compared to the opinion poll, as the latter covers only the respondents in the country and naturally does not include the opinion of the migrant workers (IISEPS bulletin, December 2012).

It turns out that the real turnout was below 50%. But neither the IISEPS head nor analysts and journalists who replicated his previous statements considered it necessary to draw attention to this.

Recently, the media published details of the new IISEPS surveys. There are figures, levels of candidates' support, number of people who are going to vote ... There will be polls after the voting day. The press will spread the ratings, analysts will take time evaluating figures. But there is no guarantee that in a few months there will not be published again an invisible amendment which will essentially refute all the previous statements...

Vital Rymasheuski, specially for charter97.org