Stanislau Bahdankevich: Lukashenka Considers Reforms Machinations of Enemies

The IMF should not give a loan to authorities of Belarus.

The IMF mission works in Minsk on November 9-19.

Is Minsk ready to carry out structural reforms to get $3 billion?

Does Belarus really need other credit? May Belarus face technical default in early 2016?

Former head of the National Bank Stanislau Bahdankevich answered questions of Belorusskya Pravda.

- Are Belarusian authorities ready to carry out structural reforms to get the IMF's $3 billion?

- It's hard to say, taking into account the ruler's opinion. Lukashenka said that until he was President he would not allow any radical, comprehensive, real reforms. In case of reforms, we can expect that the International Monetary Fund will not allocate resources for nothing, but for radical structural changes in the economy. If Lukashenka seriously says that he will not allow reforms, there's no need to expect credit support.

- But Lukashenka already tells about "reforms comprehensive enough" that have been carried out.

- Major reforms, institutional ones, have been not undertaken: cessation of bureaucrats' involvement in pricing, state companies produce goods that lay in warehouses, reforms of governmental property management are not carried out. Lukashenka has recently stated that he would appoint bureaucrats who would be responsible for selling of every tractor and loaf of bread. It is hard to understand him; even harder to comment on it.

- Does Belarus with its external debt of more than $40 billion need other credit?

- Belarus does not need loans to maintain the status quo of the inefficient economy. It needs them to turn the economy into an effective one. In 2015 number of loss-making business entities, doubled, incomes decreased. Lukashenka knows it. Credits are needed to implement reforms with less social costs for population. Other variants must be ignored. I would like no one give us loans.

- In his interview to charter97.org Leanid Zlotnikau calculated that without external borrowings Belarus would be subject to technical default in early 2016. Could you agree with it?

- It is possible to reduce standards of living, the volume of investments, capital investments, redeem loans and not to lead the country to default. There is a direct correlation of falling living standards and deterioration of prospects for future development, if we reduce investments. This year Belarus gains considerable investments, although they decreased by more than 20%: we still build roads, housing, and infrastructure. In case it is stopped, we could redeem debts. Default is not necessary, but living standards of the population are to decrease.

But true politician should announce radical, fast and comprehensive, within a year reforms to revive the economy. Is 3-4% GDP decrease a norm in 2015? No, it is not. Exports and imports, as well as productivity outputs fall. As of October 1, according to official statistics, it happens in all spheres.

We need reforms, but Lukashenka considers them machinations of his enemies.