Deja Vu: No Devaluation to Happen

Negative experience should make the Belarusians grow circumspect.

August fall of the ruble by more than 10% was caused by external factors. Now the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is on the verge of the equilibrium one, and there are no preconditions for its accelerated devaluation in the fourth quarter.

The Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Dzmitry Kalechyts stated at the Conference "Economy of Belarus has a choice again", tut.by reports.

"It is because currency markets are very sensitive not only to objective supply and demand factors, but also to the subjective expectations, attitudes, which can vary sharply," Kalechyts says.

He noted that this August external shock in the form of a sharp course correction of the Russian ruble against oil prices had caused a short-term speculative pressure in currency market. "However, transition to a new regime of exchange rate formation played a positive role amid this burst," he stated. Additional drop rate of the Belarusian ruble and well-timed market correction has helped to reduce the negative influence of these factors on the country's economy.

According to the National Bank of Belarus, the real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is now close to its equilibrium level, "that proves the optimality of exchange rate policy.

Kalechyts drew attention to the importance of qualitative institutional changes to maintain and strengthen macroeconomic stability in Belarus.

It should be recalled that every time before the devaluation officials or representatives of the National Bank assured the population that it would not happen.