Belarusian ruble devaluation accelerates threefold

The Currency and Stock Exchange met Belarusians with an unpleasant surprise after a holiday.

The dollar grew 2 percent. What is it – market fluctuations or the devaluation trend? How will the Belarusian ruble behave? Belsat's Stanislau Ivashkevich tried to answer these questions.

At first glance, these are the usual fluctuations caused by the market exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, after the National Bank allowed it to float freely on January 9. However, if we look at the ruble's exchange rate against three currencies, the myth of the market mechanism of the exchange rate formation doesn't seem to be true. The Belarusian ruble falls by an average of 3% a month against the currency basket, according to the National Bank.

“The ruble is being devalued. We just need to decide whether it will be a sharp devaluation, when all people will be running in panic, or it will be a soft devaluation of 2-3% a month,” economist Leanid Zaika says.

The Belarusian ruble has declined by 5.5% and 25% against the dollar and the Russian ruble respectively, and has grown by 3.5% against the euro since January 9, when the duty on purchasing foreign currency was lifted. The Belarusian currency fell against the currency basket by more than 9% for three months. The only difference between this year's soft devaluation and last year's one is that the Belarusian ruble is pegged not only to the dollar, but also to the euro and the Russian ruble, which gives the National Bank more room for manoeuvre. The devaluation of the national currency, however, didn't slow down. On the contrary, the devaluation pace increased threefold.