Barys Zhaliba: New devaluation of Belarusian ruble is inevitable

The Belarusian economy is depressed.

The currency market is comparatively stable. Is it temporary?

Economist Barys Zhaliba discussed it with Narodnaya Volia newspaper.

The US dollar grew 20 Belarusian rubles to Br14,510 on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange on April 8 after a decline during the previous four days.

“The dollar fluctuations are local. The general trend is that the US dollar has stabilisaed at 14,500-15,000 rubles a dollar,” the economist says.

– How was it achieved?

– Out trade balance has improved. It happened not due to an increase in exports, but because imports fell more than exports. As a result, demand and supply became more or less balanced on the currency exchange. The National Bank's money emission also influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble to a certain degree. According to statistical data, the money supply in rubles has reduced, so the National Bank carries out a wise emission policy. Loan interest rates remain high, which restricts lending. In general, it has a positive impact on the situation on the currency exchange. The crisis helps stabilise the exchange rate. Every cloud has a silver lining.

– Can the dollar resume growth in the near future?

– Of course it can. The economy is depressed. I do not rule out the possibility of a moderate devaluation. GDP is falling, industry is in the red. If the economy declines, the Belarusian ruble will be devalued again sooner or later.

The Belarusian ruble has been devalued about 40% in the last few months.