Lukashenka asks the IMF for $3.5 billion

Experts say that at best the decision about new credit can be made by the end of the year.

On July 7 a regular IMF mission arrived to Minsk. Specialists headed by David Hoffman will spend 7 days in Belarus. The main objective is to discuss our economic policy and reforms, kp.by informs.

The Belarusian government hopes that the IMF will provide then with a new credit. On the eve of a mission's arrival Finance Minister Uladzimir Amaryn told journalists the Government expected the same amount as given the last time- $3.5 billion. We finally have it settled this March. Then the IMF mission repeatedly arrived to Belarus to assess the progress after the programme completion. In their report experts both praised (for a more flexible exchange rate formation mechanism) and came down on us (it is necessary to reduce inflation to single digits, carry out structural reforms and curb wage growth).

-We can see that many decisions, which are now being taken by the Government and the National Bank, fall within the recommendations of IMF experts. This is the same binding of wage growth to productivity or measures aimed at inflation reduction at an annual rate. We have already realized the necessity of structural and market reforms that are needed to improve the competitiveness of the national economy on a medium and long-term horizon. With financial and technical assistance from the IMF it will be easier to perform these reforms, Aliaksandr Mukha, analyst of BusinessForecast.by, says. - Nevertheless, the parties may still have some matters in difference. For example, the IMF can insist on faster reforms or not very popular measures - for example, privatization of some public enterprises. However, I think, ultimately, the parties will manage to negotiate.

-If everything goes well, may the current IMF mission decide to grant us a new credit?

- Based on the results of July mission the probability, as such, looks vague. This visit is only an intermediate stage. Simply put, they will give us new recommendations on which we will work. At best, any agreements one will be able to come only at the end of this year, after the completion of the election campaign.