19 March 2024, Tuesday, 12:05
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Amber Hope of Europe

Amber Hope of Europe
Roman Yakovlevsky

The annexation of Crimea destroyed the European security system and made NATO's relations with Russia hostile.

The influence of the new status quo on the relations of Moscow's allies with NATO is less noticeable. However, Moscow is increasing pressure on the members of the CSTO not leaving hopes to turn it into a sort of anti-NATO.

However, the alarming prospects for the situation in the Central Asian region, where only Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are not a party to the military-political structure with the Russian dominance, force Moscow to be tolerant to NATO. Basically, it is about the bilateral relations of the Alliance with each CSTO member state bordering on Afghanistan - the graveyard of empires. Looks like Kremlin forgot the history of Afghanistan, when in 2015 it decided to close the transit of military equipment for the NATO forces in Afghanistan. It was the end of the Northern Distribution Network (NDN).

It was the new route that connected ports of the Baltic and Caspian Seas with Afghan NATO bases by sea, rail and highways, drew a reliable transport network through Russia and several countries of Central Asia.

Belarus also participated in this project. However, despite the gradual loss of profitability from the project, Minsk tried not to promote its participation. Apparently, the amounts of payment for transit was still important for the ruling regime, because they were classified for the citizens . At the same time, Russia's rejection of the "Northern route" into Afghanistan did not stifle its desire to strengthen its military bases in Central Asia. In particular, it was true about Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Kremlin's policy makers did not forget their Belarusian ally either. For some time now, the topic of the Russian military bases in Belarus has been quite popular. So far, Russia has preferred not to force it, for whatever reasons of its own. But it does not mean that it does not need its own military bases on the territory of Belarus and it will abandon this highly publicized idea.

Some judgments that, for example, the Russian airbase in Belarus will be subordinated to the goals and objectives of a Single Regional System of the Union State defense are in many ways misleading. This defense system is called Single and not United for a reason. Such a unified system cannot have two simultaneous commanders. The principle of command unity is clear about it. This principle can also be seen in the vertical power structure in both parts of this virtual state. For example, Putin personally and publicly spoke about the decisions made during the Crimea annexation.

The Crimean blitzkrieg and the war in eastern Ukraine contributed to the resuscitation of both NATO and the military-political union between Russia and Belarus. In the ensuing aggravation of the confrontation between Russia and NATO in the Baltic region, an increasingly prominent role is being played by the Kaliningrad enclave which is a neighbor to Poland and Lithuania, where Russian troops of the Russia-Belarus regional military groupings of the so-called Union State are stationed.

These military units today come almost in a direct contact with various military units of NATO member countries, which started to have regular military exercises along with their Russian counterparts. The Belarusian army is also having more of various military exercises. There are currently joint exercises of the military contingents of the Collective Rapid Reaction Force (CRRF) special forces called Cooperation-2015 that are planned for the end of August. They will be held for the first time in the Pskov region.

In addition to units of the Russian Armed Forces, the exercises will involve military contingents of the armed forces of Belarus, and countries lying much further from the Baltic States such as Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

As it turned out, the general supervision of maneuvers will be made by the commander of Russian Airborne Troops, Colonel-General Vladimir Shamanov, who received the star of the Hero of Russia for punitive operations in Chechnya. We also know that not so long ago in Vitebsk he inspected Belarusian paratroopers who will be involved in the upcoming autumn war games called Union Shield 2015. As expected, the large-scale show will take place in the federal territory of Russia. By the way, today Crimea, where Putin is now discussing with the State Council the tourism issues, is considered one of them. Perhaps you can remember how last spring Crimea was visited by "polite people." Those visitors caused a shock in Europe, the effects of which are still felt today.

Thus the dynamics of the situation in the region is obvious. Experts are increasingly pointing to the trend towards increased tensions and reduced level of trust between the two military blocs. According to some of them, the current frequency and suddenness of military exercises could easily escalate into a more serious event. And after the recent statement by the President of Poland Andrzej Duda about the revival of the Baltic-Black Sea block, we should expect in response the reemergence of another old issue.

Once, 15 years ago,a well-known Russian political scientist and today the Duma leader and one of the ideologues of Putin's "Russian world" Vyacheslav Nikonov spoke at a conference in Minsk. People like to call him Molotov's grandson, whom he really is. So in Minsk he then spoke about the existence of a plan to create a Polish analogue of Kosovo in the Balkans in the "Novogrudok triangle" on the territory of Belarus. It means there exist speculations about such external threat. And such oracles have appreciative audience.

Judging by the behavior of the Moscow Duma deputies and other people with imperial hopes, few people there are even aware that Belarus does have Kosovo. And in this place in Brest region Belarusians and foreign guests celebrate the birthday of the national hero of Belarus, Poland, Lithuania and the United States, an honorary citizen of France Tadeusz Kosciuszko (1746-1817). So this "Novogrudok triangle" may well become an argument and then the real reason for the expression of another of Kremlin's concern about their compatriots. Who knows? The current advocates of the "Russian world" can add to them the citizen of the Russian empire Immanuel Kant from Koenigsberg. In his treatise Perpetual Peace, Kant for the first time described the cultural and philosophical foundations of the future unification of Europe into the family of enlightened nations. But these apologists do not need this Europe, it is simply hostile for them.

It should be noted that for those who are already tired of Putin's "jokes", the Russian president's appearance in the midst of this summer at the Amber Hall theatre in Kaliningrad was perceived as a harbinger of another gloomy present for Europe. And they were not mistaken. On the very next day after he came to the theater, Putin visited a naval parade in Baltiysk and announced that he had approved a new Maritime Doctrine of the country. A special role in it is given to relations with NATO. Activity of the Alliance in the Baltic States and pro-NATO sentiment in Sweden and Finland increased within just a year. The new Maritime Doctrine of Putin clearly indicates where "we will threaten a Swede" from.

Already in June there appeared an official announcement of the Russian Navy about the construction of the large landing ships starting in the next five years. Presumably, it will be a Russian response to the French Mistrals. The first one is to appear already in 2020.

Currently, though, Putin's appearance at the Amber Hall theatre with his new plans brought back in people some other recollections of the former times of searching for mutual understanding and trust, including those between the military of various European countries.

It is appropriate to recall today the military exercises Amber Hope regularly held in Lithuania since the mid-90s. Those were the largest exercises for the time held in the framework of the NATO Partnership for Peace initiative, and they were attended by representatives from Canada, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Latvia, Norway, Poland, the United States (NATO countries and the states - participants of the program Partnership for Peace). Among military observers, who came to the exercises from a number of countries, were Belarusian servicemen.

According to the legend of one of the Amber Hope annual exercises, there was a conflict between the neighboring countries due to an attempt to change the boundaries, which led to an armed clash. How is it not the present situation in Ukraine? So, according to the scenario of those exercises, to prevent further escalation of violence, forward come the UN peacekeeping forces, which arise between the conflicting parties to form a separating corridor. The scenario had a place for the separatists violating the ceasefire agreement and attacking positions of international peacekeeping force (PFOR). Such exercises were also held in the Lithuanian territorial waters of the Baltic Sea.

The whole atmosphere of the Amber Hope exercises was lacking aggressiveness in the mood of the participants and observers. But today Europe is in the atmosphere of anxiety about the future, devoid of clear-cut system of security and trust. And the Amber Hope scenario today no longer seems quite so fantastic for Europeans.

Roman Yakovlevsky, exclusively for charter97.org

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