Leu Marholin: Dollar will cost Br 20,000 by end of year

After the “elections”, Belarusians will face more surprises than the ruble devaluation – an increase in utility prices and public transport fares.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka said today during his visit to the Cotton Production Association in Baranavichy that he wouldn't restrain the fall of the Belarusian ruble, otherwise “we will have to carry out a one-time 30% devaluation”. The dictator tried to accuse the people of Belarus of the foreign currency crisis. He said to workers of the factory: “Don't go to exchange offices. You create additional problems.”

Economist Leu Marholin, a deputy head of the United Civil Party (UCP), spoke to charter97.org about Lukashenka's statements.

– How would you comment on Lukashenka's remark about non-interference with the regulation of the weakened Belarusian ruble?

– I can say that the authorities must interfere with exchange regulation, but now how Aliaksandr Lukashenka understands it. In his understanding interference is setting the ruble rate and the devaluation rate. The authorities should carry out reforms so that the ruble wouldn't fall against freely convertible currencies.

After three falls of the Belarusian ruble, the government and the National Bank seem to have convinced Lukashenka that he'd better not interfere with these issues because it only worsens the situation.

Taking into account the speed of the Belarusian ruble slide in August and the speed at which it will drop in September and October, I think we will avoid a sharp fall this time. But it doesn't cancel the forecast that the dollar may cost 20,000 Belarusian rubles by the end of the year.

Some things are only being discussed, and we will meet them after the “elections”. I mean an increase in utility prices and transport fares, and similar things. The government will have to do it, because the International Monetary Fund and the EurAsEC Anticrisis Fund require it. These measures cannot be avoided, and they will definitely lead to the growth of inflation and devaluation.

– What can you say about the dictator's advice not to go to exchange offices?

– This is advice of a rich man to a poor man. Unfortunately, the only thing people can do is to go to exchange offices. They understand that if a grandmother could buy four bananas for her grandson, she can now buy only two. We don't live in the 19th century. We cannot buy only Belarusian products. We need fruits and imported medicines.

So, Lukashenka's advice is advice of a person who has never experienced anything like that.