Stanislau Bahdankevich: Without additional loans Belarus to face default

In case Belarus won’t receive additional external loans, its gold and currency reserves to fall by one half.

It means default: the country would not be able to pay $4 billion of foreign debt in 2016. Such a statement has been made by the former head of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich, who commented to Belorusskaya Pravda the rosy forecasts of the current chairman of the National Bank and the never-ending promises of Lukashenka.

“Foreign banks give estimations proceeding from the fact that in the second half of the year Belarus is to pay about $3 billion,” he said. “But Kalaur seems to have information that Belarus is to receive additional loans from the Eurasian Bank of Development, from Russia. They expect to pay the external debts with the help of external loans, and the reserves are to stay intact.

If we won’t get foreign loans, the reserves to be curtailed by at least $2 billion.

In July peak payments to service the foreign and home currency debts, $1.3 billion, were made. I think that Belarus is yet to pay about $3 billion: in 2015 the country is to pay about $4 billion of external debt. I mean not only the debt of the government, but the aggregate debt. I think that Kalaur has grounds to expect additional feeding. If no additional feeding received, the reserves are to fall by one half.”

We remind that a few days ago analysts of Austrian bank group Raiffeisen for the second time in this year reconsidered the predictive appraisal of Belarus. Experts decided to adjust the appraisal in its three key parameters of economic development of Belarus.

In particular, analysts of Raiffeisen group, whose appraisals are cited in the review of the Belarusian subsidiary bank, now predict that the GDP of Belarus in 2015 is to fall by 3.5%.