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Kalev Stoicescu: Putin is not joking and not bluffing

Kalev Stoicescu: Putin is not joking and not bluffing
Kalev Stoicescu

Russia's actions in the Baltic region are taking on a threatening nature.

This has been stated in an interview to charter97.org by Kalev Stoicescu, a former employee of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defence and an analyst in the International Centre for Defence and Security, specializing in foreign and domestic policy of Russia.

- In Europe, especially in the Baltic States and Poland, they talk about the re-emerging imperial ambitions of Russia. How realistic are the threats posed by the Russian Federation?

- Politicians and experts are paying too much attention to what the Kremlin says but not on what it actually does. But the Kremlin is already accounted for the aggression against Georgia in 2008 and later against Ukraine. In my opinion, this shows the real intentions of the Kremlin authorities. The next factor that perfectly demonstrates intentions of the Russian government is the concept of the Russian foreign policy. Presentations and speeches of the Russian President are full of threatening symbols.

It is quite difficult to determine when Russia will begin to use threatening rhetoric in its foreign policy. It seems that this started long before the events in Georgia and Ukraine. The first glimpses of such rhetoric could be seen in the early 2000s, when Putin just started his presidential term. It was then that Putin started talking about the Russian vision of the world, with which the Baltic countries do not want to have anything to do.

However, Russia is not interested in our opinion on whether we want to be a part of the “Russian world” and to be present in its sphere of influence. Doesn’t every state, as well as every person, have their own right to choose what values and partnership to strive for? This choice should be respected. Russia is very sensitive about the independence of other States in the region, that, according to the Kremlin, has to be in the Russian zone of influence. In 2008, during the NATO summit in Bucharest, neither Georgia nor Ukraine was offered membership in the Alliance, which further resulted in Russian aggression against these two countries.

- The Kremlin rejected plutonium disposition and announced massive exercises of civil defense. What, in your opinion, does it implicate?

- Ironically, but most probably, this indicates two completely opposite things. First, the Kremlin might seek a way to demonstrate its strength and confidence in its political initiatives. Secondly, it may indicate that the Kremlin worries that neither Europe nor the United States take the Russian threat seriously. Therefore, Moscow is doing everything possible and impossible to prove the determination of its intentions.

I personally think that the most likely scenario is the following: Putin is not joking and not bluffing, and he is indeed openly preparing for war. After the war with Georgia, Russia started a sharp militarization, consequences of which can be seen in Ukraine and Syria. Even in case with Syria Russia had an excellent chance to show its willingness to cooperate, and thus decrease tensions. Instead, the bombs rained down on hospitals and schools; recently a convoy of humanitarian aid was bombed. That means that Vladimir Putin, instead of calming the situation, has worsened it even more.

Withdrawal from the plutonium disposition agreement is a political demarche of Moscow. Moreover, the Kremlin requires from the US the compensation for the sanctions, fairly imposed on Russia for its aggressive actions. Tragicomedy and farce. Does Vladimir Putin seriously hope that Washington will agree to fulfill such demands? I don’t think so, and I would expect further attempts of Moscow to heighten tensions.

- How effective was the information war waged by Russian public media on the Estonian territory?

- I think that the informational impact of Russian media on indigenous Estonians is still quite modest. As for the Russian-speaking population, this effect is certainly evident. However, fortunately, people watch Russian TV channels mainly due to their entertainment component.

- What factors does the security of Estonia and other Baltic countries depend on?

- Here we are talking about a common security and defense of all countries of the region, including those countries that do not belong to NATO (Sweden and Finland). If, God forbid, a conflict happens, neither our Swedish nor Finnish friends will remain on the sidelines. The main suppressive factor is the Kremlin’s acknowledgement that any of its conflicting actions will cause an immediate reaction from the Alliance and Scandinavian countries. On the other hand, in a hypothetical conflict of NATO and Russia, our countries are not the Moscow's strategic goal but rather a possibility to hit the EU. Such a possibility cannot be given to the Kremlin. That is why we decided on the presence of troops of NATO allies in our region.

In Moscow, they understand that the four battalions of the Alliance do not represent any threat, however, they continue to stick to their line and escalate tensions. NATO soldiers – is a good signal to the Kremlin that NATO will defend itself. Why did Russia start aggression against Ukraine? Because Kiev at that time turned out to be weak and vulnerable. Estonia cannot afford such weakness.

- Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said in an interview that, in the event of a conflict, the country's armed forces will be able to hold their position for about five days until the allied armies would show up. What does the Estonian army count on?

- Of course, we have our defense plans. Firstly, there is self-defense. Of course, apart from the United States, there are just a few countries that could protect themselves from Russia on their own. But the concept of defense is built on the idea that the allies will quickly react and bring their troops to our country. It is possible that the first days of a hypothetical conflict would be difficult for us, but we hope that the situation would improve as soon as the allied forces begin to arrive. I really hope that such situation is well understood by the Kremlin as well.

- Lithuania expects the support from the Polish Armed Forces. Which countries does Estonia rely on?

- We rely on help from all the Allies, but above all from the United States. As for Lithuania, I think that Vilnius, instead of expecting support from Poland, should engage in cooperation with it for the protection of the Suvalkai corridor. Although Poland has large armed forces, I think it will seek to defend primarily its own territory.

- Nevertheless, NATO soldiers in the Baltic States raise concerns in Russia and might provoke it for certain actions.

- We tried to explain to Russia that we were already in NATO for ten years before 2014, and that no one even thought about the collective security and the presence of allied forces until the Kremlin decided to annex the Crimea. I do not know who is to blame for the situation, but, before accusing us, the Kremlin should look in the mirror at itself.

- Swedish troops will again appear on the island of Gotland. How will this affect the balance of power in the region?

- Stockholm was hoping that everything would be alright. But everything turned out quite the opposite. Russia demonstrated that it did not respect the sovereignty of either Sweden or Finland. Of course, the Swedes can’t help worrying about that.

- In your opinion, is normalization of relations with Russia possible?

- We all hope so, but when I look at Putin's policies and the actions of the Russian elite, it seems that they have entered into a spiral of confrontation with the West and they will not be able to escape from it. It's a classic Russian approach: they are not going to do anything in order to improve the relationship. They will wait while others will bow to them and start negotiations - Moscow will not be first to give a hand. That is why I am very skeptical about the prospects for improved relations of Europe and the US with Russia.

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Kalev Stoicescu - a former employee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defence of Estonia, began working in International Centre for Defence and Security on August 11, 2014. In 1991-2000, Stoicescu worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia, as well as an ambassador of the OSCE, the United States and Canada. He was a member of the Estonian delegation at the negotiations on the state border with Russia and Latvia. In 2002-2014, he worked in the Ministry of Defence: firstly as a head of the department for cooperation of civil and military structures, and since 2007 – as an adviser on security policy at the Estonian Embassy in Paris.

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