Barys Zhaliba: Ukraine Shows Growth, Belarus Shows Decline

The economist has explained why it will be hard for the Belarusian authorities to revive the trade with the neighbouring country.

On Thursday, the Vice-PM of Belarus Uladzimir Siamashka has revealed the bold optimistic plans to grow the goods turnover between Belarus and Ukraine up to $ 8 million, at a meeting with his Ukrainian colleague Hennadiy Zubko. This was the level of the Belarus-Ukraine trade in the pre-crisis period in 2012.

— We are working on the sore issues and, as a result, we have had a small but evident growth of the goods turnover between Belarus and Ukraine— $ 2,8 billion, or 10%, — Siamashka has said.

He has also noted that Ukraine was “trading partner #2” for Belarus.

The Ukrainian official has responded with a statement of an opportunity to organize oil shipments from Ukraine for its further processing at the Belarusian oil refineries.

Doctor of Economic Sciences Barys Zhaliba has assessed the reality of these plans in a comment to Solidarity.

— There are many flaws here, — he has noted in the express-comment. — Yes, Belarus used to have a $ 8 billion of the goods turnover with Ukraine. However, first, it was before the war. When Russia annexed Crimea and started the so-called “hybrid war” at Donbass, the Ukrainian economy suffered a lot.

Secondly, according to the expert, the Belarusian economy remains in recession, while the currency earnings have been declining for the fourth year in a row.

— Ukraine shows minimal but growth, while Belarus only shows decline, — Barys Zhaliba has underlined. — So, we remain far from achieving the announced figures.

As for the offers to load the Belarusian oil refineries with the Ukrainian oil, the expert has given a more optimistic assessment:

— The point is, our refineries are underutilized, and if Ukraine on commission will provide them with some sort of processing, this offer remains timely. Their oil refining industry is in crisis, and for Belarusians it is a good chance. No one knows how Lukashenka and Putin will agree on oil and gas issues.

According to the interlocutor, the Belarusian authorities should establish at least normal and mutually beneficial relations with Ukraine, instead of imposing a variety of trade restrictions, as it has repeatedly happened with the Ukrainian sweets and beer.