Leu Marholin: Lukashenka's Star Is Set

According to economist, the authorities will augment pressure on private enterprises.

Lukashenka has rekindled dreams of return the salary of $500.

On November 17 the dictator has stated for the second time within a week the necessity to increase salaries up to $500 at the conference for the Russian media.

"You should do their best to reach the point of $500... And I will do the same," he stressed.

Once an average salary in the country equaled to $500, but it did not last long. Why has Lukashenka remembered about unfulfilled promise?

Economist Leu Marholin answered questions of EuroBelarus.

- In theory, it is possible to make salaries of $500 back, but 1-1.5 million of people need to become jobless. That is, to close all inefficient enterprises. It is clear that the Belarusian authorities will not take such measures. It means that it is not possible.

I've been thinking about Lukashenka's words. He repeated it several times. The only explanation I've come up with is that all private enterprises will have to raise salaries. But that trick could succeed in the early 90s, when many enterprises issued hidden salaries; now there are no such among big enterprises, and only few among mid-size ones. If to tighten screws, the reverse effect can be observed - further reduction of business.

And there are no other ways to increase salaries. Any freshman of an economic department realizes that the salary depends on productivity. Higher salaries require higher productivity. Lukashenka should have specified how to do it. But there is nothing to say.

-Nevertheless, Lukashenka has initially given an impossible promise. What is his aim?

- Many Belarusians still believe that Lukashenka may be out of the wood. But now even the most ardent supporters say that Lukashenka's star is set. Perhaps, the Belarusian leader tries to inbreathe optimism, hope, although this can hardly work.

- May it give a reverse effect? May it cause aggression in the society?

- If it was another country, it would be the right way to discourse upon. But a strong intensification in Belarus is barely possible. The repressive machine has been well established for two decades and works properly. In the 90s there were large enterprises, collectives at MAZ, MTZ, and a working person was a moving power. Now the situation differs, especially it is well-observed in the regions, and cuts occur at the largest enterprises. In most cases large enterprises have a great number of pensioners, people of preretirement age or young specialists who just barely found work.

- Some experts say that Lukashenka launches a new political campaign - preparations to other constitutional referendum.

- I see no parallels with a salary of $500 and the preparation to the referendum. We all know how elections and referendums are held in the country: any result can be programmed in advance. Then he'd better do, but not to give promises.

There is the only way for the authorities to increase salaries - to launch the printing press and to throw money in the economy. But Belarusians know well the scheme: people rush to buy up currency and it will lead to fall of the ruble.

I think this is too complex scheme for the authorities.