We to Keep Drowning with Lukashenka, Economists Say

Crisis in Belarus will be prolonged, experts believe.

The government hopes that the domestic industrial enterprises will be the locomotive of the economy next year.

-We will not revise the forecast for 2017 even with the limited supply of oil. The real potential of the industrial sector is hoped for in Belarus, Economy Minister Uladzimir Zinouski stated.

In his words, the industry has overcome recession and enterprises take the positive growth with minimum stock level.

Zautra Tvaye Krainy wonders whether expectations of minister to be true.

Bukhvostau: No Need to Hurry to Rejoice

The Chairman of the free Trade Union of Metalworkers (SPM) Aliaksandr Bukhvostau notes that the statement of Uladzimir Zinouski repeats recent words of the Vice Prime Minister Uladzimir Siamashka. Deputy Head of the Government has recently pointed out that the recession had ended and "the growth rate today in the Industry is 103%".

- One needs to understand that both the economy minister and deputy prime minister are responsible for the situation. Their speeches, I think, first aim at the head of the state who follow the process and require an early economic recovery, Aliaksandr Bukhvostau says.

He doubts that things in the industry have turned to the better.

- The government has more precise numbers and positive dynamics may be real. Is this law of nature or phenomenon? In the winter drop in demand is usually observed, as well as factory load, the expert notes.

According to the leader of the Trade Union, data from regions are not inspiring, for example at automobile units plants.

He offers waiting for a few months before making any conclusions on the recovery of the Belarusian industry.

- There is no need to hurry to rejoice, it remains to be seen. It's to early for current optimistic statements of bureaucrats. In February-March it will be possible to conclude if there are any positive shifts, Aliaksandr Bukhvostau points out.

Shlyndzikau: We Are Doomed to a Prolonged Crisis

Ex-President of Amkodor Vasil Shlyndzikau is suspicious about the voiced data.

-Speaking frankly, I don't believe the statistics and see no signs that our industry has started ramping up production. There is no ground for it, the economist notes.

He recalls that the situation in Russia does not improve. No changes for the better have occurred in Belarus: no structural reforms, no privatization, no large investments.

- How can the industry growth be possible? the expert wonders.

According to him, the production growth could be expected in case of changes in political and economic system of the country. To temporarily improve the situation lifting of western sanctions on Russia is required. But the economist believes that at the moment such forecasts are unreal.

- I'm afraid that we are doomed to a prolonged crisis with slight improvements. In future we will keep drowning, Vasil Shlyndzikau predicts.