28 March 2024, Thursday, 18:41
Support
the website
Sim Sim,
Charter 97!
Categories

Bridgeheads: Kaliningrad plus Belarusian One

20
Bridgeheads: Kaliningrad plus Belarusian One
Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski

Russia has already "occupied" the machinery of government of Belarus.

Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski, member of the National Development Council of Poland, expert on international policy and security, professor of Lódź University told in the interview to charter97.org.

- It's been three months since the new government of Poland formed by Law and Justice Party has started its work. - Do you think the eastern policy has changed, especially on the part of Belarus?

- First of all, Poland's eastern policy today aims at creation of a system of military protection amid the growing aggressiveness of Russia and fortification of eastern flank of NATO. The Polish diplomacy actually aims at it now. Upcoming NATO summit dated for July in Warsaw will be the symbol of success.

This very context should be the ground for consideration of the Polish policy towards certain states in the region, starting from the north - the Baltic States and Scandinavia, who as well as Poland apprehend danger on the part of Russia. Central position of Belarus on the axis of the geopolitical space should be pointed out. Ukraine is in the south of the "axis". The country has faced Russian aggression and evasion of the Crimea and Donbas.

South flank of NATO, according to Poland, is also of great importance. It is the location of the frozen conflict in Trans-Dniester, which affects interests of Romania. The escalation of Russia-Turkey relations after the Turkish Air Forces shot down the Russian warplane happened in the very south. Georgia also may be enlisted.

All this geographical territory is the thing Poland is interested in within the context of destabilizing influence of Russia in the region.

In case with Belarus, factors affecting the Polish foreign policy are deteriorating now: Lukashenka made everything possible to preserve his power and he does not demonstrate any significant steps.

The escalating military presence of Russia and development of system of Russian military airbases in Belarus causes serious problems. The Polish government considers it an escalation of Russian military potential on our eastern border: "Kaliningrad" bridgehead is added with the "Belarusian" one.

We should remember that Poland, as well as Belarus and Ukraine are of "transit" importance for exporting countries. It also forms the geopolitical axis that binds our two countries, but at the same time, it damages interests of Poland, as well as security of Belarus and Ukraine amid development of energy cooperation between Russia and Germany (Nord Stream -2 - editor's note).

The Polish government keeps a close watch on all these threats, but at the moment there is no allocation of the Belarusian direction into an independent policy. Many things depend on whether Russia is going to augment its military potential in Belarus and increase the economic dependence of the Lukashenka's regime. That is why Poland is still an observer towards Belarus, all conclusions and future actions will be grounded on situation analysis and "shifts" in the region.

- Can the establishment of three new brigades of the territorial defense on the eastern border of Poland be considered a tit-for-tat response to augmentation of Russian military influence on Belarus?

- Poland has never considered Belarus its possible source of aggression. It is about the use of the Belarusian territory by Russia for aggression against Europe, as well as about Russia's "occupation" of the machinery of government of Belarus and its use to destabilize the situation in our region, first of all in Poland, Baltic States and Ukraine.

Escalation of Russian military presence in Belarus continues. Combined maneuvers of 2009 and 2013 with the West as the main enemy may happen again. These maneuvers practiced "training", related to "suppression" of an alleged uprising in Vitsebsk and Hrodna regions and breaching the "corridor" to "Kaliningrad" bridgehead.

It makes possible to assure that the Kremlin may order to use the Belarusian territory for attack against NATO, Poland and Ukraine as well. Poland must tighten its positions on the border with territory under Russian military control.

Experience shows that Russia does not hesitate to use its army as an argument for its political "objectives": Moldova, Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine are given as examples. We must be prepared for any possible scenario. I don't think it is possible in the near future, but we must be prepared.

Write your comment 20

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts