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Andrei Fedarau: Problems Of Belarusian Authorities To Build Up

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Andrei Fedarau: Problems Of Belarusian Authorities To Build Up
Andrei Fedarau
Photo: RFE/RL

No matter how the geopolitical choice of the official Minsk changes, it will negatively reflect on the regime.

Such opinion was expressed by political analyst Andrei Fedarau at a presentation in the University of Warsaw, Radio Racyja reports. The expert believes that it is improbable that the official Minsk shifts towards the West.

- Somehow I don’t believe that the Belarusian Government will do a 180° and consider the Western vector to be its main vector. I am sure that Moscow will react negatively. And its reaction will be similar to the one it demonstrated when Ukraine turned towards the West. If the official Minsk listens to Moscow, it will gain some economical benefits. But it will have to pay therefor with policy, the airbase, which the Belarusian authorities don’t want to host on their territory, - Andrei Fedarau said.

The analyst believes that the Belarusian government has been demonstrating less tendency to follow Russia. This is manifested by the disapproval of military operations in Ukraine and Syria. However, Belarus is not yet ready for the liberal reforms of the economy to improve its relations with the West.

- What is to be done for the reforms? Privatization. And this means a sharp decrease of the state share in the economy. The authorities understand that this will lead to the loss of their influence or even loss of power. This is why they are very afraid of these steps and they won’t take them, believing that they’ll manage to survive by some chance. Previously, support from Russia was helping to stay afloat, but now it cuts its help and, accordingly, problems will build up, - the analyst believes.

Andrei Fedarau added that he sees no choice, which would be beneficial for the regime.

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