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Vytautas Bruveris: The Outcome Of The Dictatorship In Belarus Is Important

Vytautas Bruveris: The Outcome Of The Dictatorship In Belarus Is Important
Vytautas Bruveris
Photo: DELFI

EU has no clear strategy towards Belarus, and there have been no real sanctions against Lukashenka.

This is what Lithuanian political commentator Vytautas Bruveris said in an interview with charter97.org.

According to him, for Lithuania, Belarus is a very important country, it is even more important how the dictatorship will end, because it is not eternal. Also important for Lithuania is the possible appearance of the Russian military bases in Belarus and the construction of nuclear power plant there.

- How would you assess the EU policy towards Belarus, the lifting of sanctions and the policy in general?

- I assess this policy negatively, if not worse -- very negatively, because it is not even a policy. The EU has no policy towards Belarus. Under policy we mean some sensible, coordinated action and the action plan, a strategy with a clear purpose. The EU has no such purpose towards Belarus.

Sanctions ... What kind of sanctions are these? These are targeted, personal limitations for a group of individuals and that's all. Under the word sanctions, I understand, so to speak, a club hit all over the body, structural limitations that would harm the entire state and the economy. There have been no such sanctions against Belarus. So it's a tactical, often chaotic and ad hoc action, depending on the current, particular moment.

- How important is for Lithuania the current Belarusian issue, and how will the relationship be affected by the lifting of sanctions against the Lukashenka regime?

- The Belarusian issue is, in fact, very important for Lithuania. It is a neighboring country, a big country, deeply connected with Lithuania by economic ties. But the economic ties, which most often come to the fore, underlying the Lithuanian political position, are not the most important thing. The main thing is the political plan, the issue of development of Belarus. I mean that for Lithuania the outcome of the dictatorship in Belarus, how it will end, is a fateful matter.

The fact that sooner or later it will come to an end is clear -- all dictatorships come to an end. The grass is green, the sky is blue and dictatorships crumble and die. The main question is how it will collapse, with what amount of blood. Maybe it will go away by itself, but I do not believe it. I think that the outcome will still be destructive, with destructive processes. This is important for Lithuania as to the neighboring country -- how much these processes will be destructive and how they will affect neighbors.

But in fact this issue is the same in regard to Russia, because we need to be clear -- the fate of Belarus is inextricably linked with the fate of Russia. Belarusian dictatorship is not only a natural ally and a product of the Russian dictatorship and imperialism, it is inseparably linked with the fate of Russia and depends on it. The Belarusian dictatorship will live as long as the Russian dictatorship would allow it to. Therefore, for Lithuania, the Belarusian issue is inextricably linked with the Russian issue of how we should build our policies, how to be guided in the future collapse of the Belarusian and Russian regimes.

- Should we consider Belarus as a potential threat to Lithuania in connection with the fact that it is a close ally of Russia?

- If we talk about Belarus only, I do not think that Lukashenka is so sick in his head to even think to attack the EU, NATO, Lithuania on his own. He is not so mad to think seriously about it. In this regard, he is very pragmatic. The current situation is advantageous for him -- he is playing with the EU and sucking advantage of it, including money for his regime. It has always been and would continue in the future, if we could consider Belarus, as the philosophers say, as a "thing in itself."

But we are talking about Russia, you mentioned Russia, with which it is allied militarily. And if we answer to the question briefly, I think the answer is clear. If the Russian regime, struck in the head with some agony, dares to start a war with NATO and to attack European, Baltic States, it is obvious that Belarus as a military force and the area would be part of the attack. That's all.

- What could be Lithuania's response to the Russian military bases in Belarus?

- I think it's quite obvious. It is a threat to the national security of Lithuania. Of course, Moscow will speak of it as the strengthening of its borders, as it always does -- that the strengthening of military groups is a response to the threat of NATO. The Kremlin will in this case say that it is only strengthening its defense.

However, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry and the official Vilnius should regard it as a potential threat to Lithuania, its independence and the simple fact that the Belarusian dictatorship loses even more of its sovereignty and personality.

There is a theory that the Belarusian regime is in some sense independent of Moscow, and Lukashenka is the guarantor of the independence of Belarus. But this is a chimera, since Lukashenka is well aware that the main guarantor of his existence is the Kremlin. And he is increasingly falling into the arms of Moscow, and the independence of Belarus is now already a theoretical thing. Therefore, the base would be a striking symbol of the way in which Belarus is moving.

- Recently in Lithuania has intensified the discussion of the issue of the nuclear power plant construction in Belarus. What possibilities does Lithuania have to influence the process and what do the plans of Minsk mean for Lithuania?

- First of all, it is dangerous, because this nuclear power plant may be the same dirty bomb as Chernobyl, because there are no mechanisms of European control over this entity. Lithuania, of course, has no large influence over it. The most important thing for the official Vilnius to do is to try to bring the EU and the West to its side.

Lithuania should try to make the issue of the station a part of the pan-European agenda in a conversation with Belarus. But, returning to the beginning of our conversation, we can say once again that there is no clear, meaningful agenda of the EU and the West in general towards Belarus. Therefore, the question is whether Lithuania can affect what is not there?

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