19 March 2024, Tuesday, 5:37
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Belarus On The Black Sea

Belarus On The Black Sea
Roman Yakovlevsky

Lukashenka’s sudden appearance in Istanbul compels us again to turn to the so-called multi-vector foreign policy, advocated by the official Minsk.

Recently, this policy has manifested itself in visits to Belarus of Bulgarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Georgian Prime Minister. In addition, if we recall that the Belarusian Foreign Minister has visited Saakashvili, a governor with rising political influence in Ukraine, we can note the systematic pursuit of the official Minsk to attend the Black Sea region with its own interests.

In 2005, Belarus has gained the status of the observer in the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). The appearance of Belarus in this organization has been viewed somewhat ambiguously by its members. Being in line with then negative attitude of the EU to the regime of Lukashenka, Greece even blocked Belarussian theme in the BSEC; however, Turkey, still not a member of the EU, often acted as a lobbyist for Minsk. Hence, as we can observe, a special relationship between Ankara and Minsk has its own history.

According to some media reports, Erdogan, being at that time a prime minister of Turkey, confessed on one of the meeting with Lukashenka that they are somewhat similar. In a political sense. As it is well known, as a president, Erdogan now aims to transform Turkey into a presidential republic, which causes domestic political tensions in the country.

Today, when most of the EU sanctions against the Belarusian regime has been removed, even such euroallied BSEC members, as Bulgaria and Romania, have begun to actively develop their relations with Belarus. However, for unknown reasons, Belarusian ambassador is still not present in Bucharest. Nor is there Belarusian Embassy in Tbilisi. Moreover, Ukrainian ambassador is not present in Minsk for a long time either. However, as some officials claim, this ambassadorial topic should be resolved soon. Presumably, according to the Minsk geological strategists, it will strengthen the Belarusian presence in this region.

After the annexation of the Crimea, the situation there is quite disturbing. Prior to that, "soft power" has been primarily used among the instruments in the EU Black Sea strategy framework. EU tried to carry out its former version of "complex neighbourhood policy" towards Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. However, Putin's foreign policy, that broke the old system of European security, has compelled to reconsider and rethink many things. Thus, Ukraine has refused the role of a neutral state because of the war with Russia, which has also pressed Armenia, taking it out of the EACU and moving away from the EU.

According to experts, today’s policy of "soft power" in the EU is largely replaced by the growing activity of NATO, which has been revived by the invasion into the Crimea. As has been noted, NATO’s activity in the Black Sea region starts acquiring “Turkish flavour”. Serious rivalry of Neo-Ottomanist Ankara with Moscow both at the South Caucasus and the Black Sea is discussed everywhere with anticipations of all of its possible consequences.

The current meeting of Lukashenka with Erdogan in Istanbul should further enrich these forecasts. It is noted that Russia is not present at the summit of the OIC. Russia has the observer status there, which Belarus attempts to gain. Hence, Lukashenka, not Putin, who has more than 6 million of Muslim citizens, represents the so-called union state on such a large-scale Muslim Forum. It seems that Erdogan, in contrast to the invitation of the high-ranking guest from Minsk, has not invited Putin because of their current interpersonal relationships. Perhaps, Putin himself ignored the event, as he did with the recent nuclear summit in Washington.

The atmosphere in today’s international relations is such that any assumption of Putin's behaviour has a right to exist. Also, it concerns the true causes of Turkish media reports at the eve of OIC Summit about the arrest of two Russian spies in Istanbul. Once the spy stories were present in Belarusian-Turkish relations. However, it was all in the past. Today, in addition to economic and trade spheres, these relationships are present also in the military sphere of mutual interests. Thus, recently, Ankara has been visited by the military delegation headed by the Major General Oleg Belokonev, Chief of the General Staff, First Deputy Minister of Defence.

Belarusian military delegation was presented with the up-to-date information on the status of the Turkish Armed Forces, assigned to them tasks, plans for further development. In addition, the Turkish side has provided the opportunity to get acquainted with the structure, system of training and equipment of its units of special operations forces", - mentioned in the official statement. It seems that in Belarusian media, the topic of military cooperation between the two countries, especially with regard to the interest to the Turkish special operations forces, has been left without due attention of the public.

Interestingly, that in the OIC, in which Belarus is so eager to get a status of the observer, there is already such an observer - the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus - a country that is not officially recognised by any country apart from Turkey. At the onset of the presidency in Belarus, Turkish leaderships tacitly, but also rather actively induced, promising a variety of financial benefits, the Belarusian side to develop relations with this unrecognized republic on the island of Cyprus (the southern part - the Republic of Cyprus - is already a member of the EU). However, nobody knows how things stand with relationships between Belarus and Turkey at this moment.

Perhaps, over some time, a clearer picture will arise on the basis of the recent Belarusian Investment Forum occurred in Istanbul with the participation of Prime Minister Kobyakov. Then he publicly expressed his hopes for the "explosive development of trade and economic relations." Belarus and Turkey are planning in 2016 to increase the bilateral trade to $ 1 billion. We may assume that Lukashenka and Erdogan will personally try to contribute to the realization of this figure.

There is little doubt that these two leaders will be able to "come up" with the solutions in spite of the well-known Belarusian dependence on the Russian market, where Turkish businessmen are having big problems after the death of the Russian pilot in Syria. There was time when we talked about the possible free trade of Turkey with the Eurasian Economic Union. And even about a deeper integration between them. However, Armenia has appeared in this union and the issue has been closed.

On the other hand, as it became known, Contact Group on Karabakh will be set up in the framework of the OIC. This initiative has been made by Ankara. Obviously, such a Contact Group would compete on the same issue with the Minsk Group of the OSCE. It is worth mentioning that this group includes both Belarus and Turkey, which does not see the future prospects of the Minsk Group.

However, chairing the OSCE Germany and many other countries continue to believe that this group is the leading force in the negotiation process. However, opponents of this view say that there is no proper clarity on the availability of real resources and the capabilities of the Minsk Group in the current environment. Apparently, Ankara, while initiating the establishment of the other contact group within the OIC, knows where to find the necessary resources and capabilities.

And then all the reminders and suggestions of the official Minsk to hold an international conference on Karabakh in the Belarusian capital will just “freeze” after the emergence of the Muslim analogue of the Minsk Group of the OSCE. And they will “be frozen” forever. In order to prevent this, appeared in Istanbul Lukashenka and his foreign minister, apparently, will try to be present at the creation of a new contact group on Karabakh, and, what is more, to get into it. At this time, to get into a contact group within the OIC.

Reactions of Yerevan and Moscow to such an option of "peace-making" are not yet known for Lukashenka. However, the presence of such reactions is not doubted. As well as there is no doubt about the reactions, most likely negative, to the emergence of Turkey at the so-called "Minsk Area” on Ukrainian theme. Indeed, as it became known only now, Lukashenka has already offered Poland a place in the "Minsk Area". Then why not offer to Turkey? Moreover if we take into account that Kiev, reinforcing the recent strategic partnership with Ankara on the anti-Russian grounds, is unlikely to oppose.

Series of open and secret meetings and contacts of Belarusian VIP guests at the summit of OIC in Istanbul should bring not only desirable Turkish investment in billions of dollars. The forum will be attended by different kings and sheikhs, for who amounts of one or two billion are not noticeable even at the current times of economic crisis. At the same time, for the Belarusian regime that amounts of money can be salutary. Judging by the sudden appearance of Lukashenka among such VIP persons, one can state that there should be some positive achievements on this issue.

Roman Yakovlevsky, exclusively for charter97.org

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