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Andrei Sannikov: West Playing Dangerous Games With Lukashenka

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Andrei Sannikov: West Playing Dangerous Games With Lukashenka
Andrei Sannikov

Any support rendered to the dictator jeopardizes not just the independence and freedom of Belarus, but also Europe’s security.

Leader of the “European Belarus” civil campaign Andrei Sannikov has stated this in an interview to Polskie Radio (translated by charter97.org).

— Russia’s MFA Sergey Lavrov visited Belarus this week. How do you assess this visit?

— It looks obvious to me that the parties discussed counteraction against NATO at the meeting. They said this directly in the press. Russia has enhanced its activity before the NATO summit in Warsaw.

Both Russian and Belarusian ministers spoke about the threat coming from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as well as about the unity of opinions on the foreign policy issues. It also remains clear to me that Moscow will involve Belarus into this counteraction more and more, with this regime at power.

There will also be a follow-up to this visit. In early June, Vladimir Putin plans to come to Belarus to attend the so-called forum of the regions of Belarus and Russia. I think that they will also touch upon the subject of the threat coming from NATO, which Russia and Belarus allegedly should stand against together.

— Do you think Russia can have some new plans regarding Belarus? There emerge assumptions in the press that Russia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov could have tried to persuade Minsk to agree to a new Russian military base or placement of “Iskander” missile systems?

— Well, what’s the need for a base? At present moment, this would be disadvantageous for Lukashenka. He seeks money from the West now, and hopes to get it, as the economic situation is very bad. Therefore, he would not discuss Russian military bases in Belarus now.

Thus, a question emerges, why they needed to announce the Russian bases after all, if the military cooperation between Russia and Belarus keeps strengthening? Military trainings are held constantly. Joint military exercises of Belarusian and Russian paratroopers will be conducted in September. Armed forces of Russia and Belarus maintain a constant contact with each other. Belarus has a military infrastructure that Russia can use anytime.

Therefore, it is possible that the new base in Belarus theme is planted to blackmail the West, extorting credits. I am convinced this has been coordinated with president Putin... Such formal setting up a military base remains unnecessary as the military cooperation between Russia and Belarus is very close.

— Recently the Belarusian opposition has published the “Declaration in Support of Belarus’ Independence”. The point of it is that the Belarusian sovereignty is under threat. You also signed this document. Can you explain its meaning? Is it the reaction to the current geo-political situation, or the on-going events, or is it just the summary of the processes that have been happening throughout many years?

— This is connected with the current situation. Russian aggression in Ukraine continues. Russia demonstrates an aggressive position in other parts of the world as well, for example, in Syria. Belarus is situated in close proximity to Russia, and the ruling regime fully depends on Moscow, and this jeopardizes the country’s independence.

Alongside with that, we know that the Budapest memorandum failed after the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Therefore, I believe that this Declaration is an important document which emerged in the right moment. It emerged on the eve of the anniversary of the Constitution-1994, which was eliminated later.

This is a sort of a signal to the democratic world, the Western countries, which pursued different policies towards Moscow and the countries of Eastern Europe in different times. It is not for nothing that the document mentions that the West didn’t recognize annexation of the Baltic States and this helped them in their struggle for freedom. The document also points out the violation of the Budapest memorandum which made the situation of Belarus considerably more complicated. The threat to the Belarusian independence has increased.

This is the statement of the people to whom our country’s independence and self-sufficiency remains the uppermost value.

— Why coming up with this Declaration today?

— The Declaration underlines that Belarus’ self-sufficiency and independence are under a double threat today – the aggressive policy of the Kremlin and the illegal regime of Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

The West is playing dangerous games with Aliaksandr Lukashenka today, helping the dictator achieve recognition of his regime. In the beginning of our conversation you asked about the visit of Russia’s MFA head Sergey Lavrov to Minsk. I can tell that there is an impression that the West got involved in some struggle for Lukashenka, not for free Belarus.

There have been practically no actions aimed at support of independence and democratic forces of Belarus from the side of the West. At the same time, we can observe competition for the attention of the dictator who is by no means a partner for the democratic world.

In my opinion, this is a very dangerous game that could result in weakening of our independence and even further subordination of Belarus to the Kremlin, I won’t use any other terms here.

Therefore, we have come up with this Declaration at this precise moment – as the West is negotiating exactly with Aliaksandr Lukashenka again. This is not the first time it happens and it inevitably led to the catastrophic consequences for both Belarus and Europe. This is why I don’t like what I see now.

— I think you are not alone in this.

— I am speaking my mind. It is weird to hear the views that, if the “parliamentary elections” pass peacefully, Aliaksandr Lukashenka will be recognized by the international community (in autumn 2016). We have no real elections. It’s uncivilized to recognize the dictator only because no Belarusian citizens will be beaten during the “elections”.

I don’t like that his visits to Europe are planned now either, the nearest one to be Italy. Thus, Europe is helping the regime to be relieved of the responsibility for its criminal activities of many years.

Any support rendered to the dictator jeopardizes not just the independent and freedom of Belarus, but also Europe’s security.

— The opposition is trying to do something in this situation. We have noted the adopted Declaration, but there was also the first session of the Belarusian National Congress. The “European Belarus”, which you are the leader of, also joined the Congress. How do you assess this initiative?

— I think it’s a step towards the goal. At present, and this remains more important, meetings of the opposition are held, where they discuss common approaches to the electoral campaign.

The Belarusian National Congress is one of the steps on the way to consolidation. The political groups which haven’t participated in the Congress before, meet with its leaders. I think this is good, this is how they can try and reach real unity.

At the same time, it is not quite clear why the Western officials, coming with visits, sometimes try to artificially adjust to the process of unification the groups that are not real opposition but represent, in the actual fact, Aliaksandr Lukashenka and the KGB.

— And what would the democratic opposition and civil society expect from the West? How to support them in such difficult situation? In the documents of the congress a very complex situation has been presented – Russification, pressure on the opposition.

– The central question is presence of political will. Unfortunately, there are no signs of it so far. And now Europe has the most efficient instrument to exert pressure on Lukashenka – the money the dictatorship needs to support its existence.

I propose one very simple principle all the time: one step forward the regime – two steps in support of the opposition, the civil society, independent mass media.

Unfortunately, I do not see that – I see rapprochement with the regime, contacts with it and marginalisation of the opposition, civil society and independent mass media on the part of the Western democracy.

The authoritarian regime cannot be a partner for a democratic Europe, and Lukashenka cannot be one. At the same time changes are possible in Belarus. Europe should be ready for these changes, and not promote enhancement of the dictatorship. We know how it had ended in Ukraine, where people tried to act in a similar way.

The conversation with Andrei Sannikov was held by Agnieszka Kamińska, PolskieRadio.pl

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