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The EU’s Last Word Has Not Yet Been Spoken

The EU’s Last Word Has Not Yet Been Spoken
Łukasz Wenerski
photo: polskieradio.pl

In the case of such countries as Belarus, giving only little attention to human rights and civil society is a quite defective position.

On 18th November 2015, the European Commission and the European External Action Service presented an updated concept of the European Neighbourhood Policy with stabilization as the main priority.

Some analysts are quite critical of the new approach, which, in their opinion, indicates a shift from previous European principles and pragmatic transfer of the emphasis on the stabilization of neighbouring regions, economic cooperation and security issues. However, compared to previous editions, many observers believe that the new strategy is more realistic because it recognizes a number of previous failures and considers the possibility of more flexible approaches, which can later give a new impetus to regional cooperation.

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was launched in 2004 with the aim of creating a "well-being area and friendly neighbourhood" on the European borders. It includes 16 countries of the EU’s periphery, cooperation with which was primarily based on the bilateral level and supplemented in 2008 by regional and multilateral directions in the form of programs "Eastern Partnership" and "Union for the Mediterranean". Since Belarus has already developed a very strained relationship with the EU at that time, Brussels warned in the original document that the main benefits would be provided to the country only after it establishes a democratic form of the government.

The evolution of the ENP since its proclamation followed the path of promotion of democratic values, the rule of law and respect for human rights with regard to both eastern and southern neighbours. In particular, as a consequence of the "Arab Spring" in 2010-2011, the neighbourhood policy was reformed, what resulted in the decision to pay special attention to the promotion of democratic values ​​in the region - that is, support of free and fair elections, freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and association, juridical independence and the fight against corruption.

At the current stage, the EU has apparently chosen a more pragmatic strategy. The reason is that the former so-called "idealistic" approach has turned out to be not effective and the expected rapid transformation has not occurred. A set of current circumstances have mainly contributed to that shift in priorities. Europe has faced new challenges that require non-standard approaches: the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, increase of terrorism threats, huge flows of refugees, economic disruption and the aggressive policy of Russia. As a consequence, the EU considers stability as a main goal of policy in relation to its neighbours. According to the text of the joint communiqué of the European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, semantic units covered by the subject of the ENP are: 1) stabilization of the EU neighbouring countries; 2) increase of the cooperation in the spheres of security and energy; 3) economic reforms and development of trade relations; 4) cooperation on migration issues. All these issues have been already presented in the ENP, but now they have been moved to the first place.

The new document also deals with the revision of the approach to the implementation of the policy in relation to its neighbours. First of all, the EU's position will become more elastic. A decision for a more flexible approach has been favoured by the fact that relations between the EU and individual ENP participants are very diverse, since not all partners are equally committed to meet European standards. Therefore, Brussels is going to move to a more individualized and differentiated partnership tailored to the specific needs and individual capabilities of the neighbouring countries. It is expected that there will be different models of cooperation that will focus more clearly on the general interests in each case, while at the same time maintaining a common policy framework. Nonetheless, an updated version of the ENP still does not imply political integration, and therefore there will not be anything new for the associated countries seeking membership in the EU, namely the Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

Between pragmatism and human rights

Despite the fact that human rights and democracy allegedly remain on the agenda, a distinct emphasis on the stabilization entails weakening of the ambitions in the sphere of democratic values. According to some analysts, return of the pragmatic thinking to the ENP evidences of pessimism and helplessness of the European Union. By assessing a new Neighbourhood Policy from the viewpoint of human rights protection, some experts point out that this is the case of stagnation of the Neighbourhood Policy rather than its adaptation or redefinition.

In view of ideological considerations, criticism of the EU’s position does not seem unreasonable. For some EU partners, in particular for Belarus and Azerbaijan, this approach can become the opportunity to organize relations with the EU on their own terms. For example, such countries can take advantage of the economic co-operation, while not accepting the obligations of democratization. It is obvious that without pressure from the European Union even partial reforms in this direction will not be performed. This also concerns countries that are more advanced in the process of democratization but still having a lot of problems in this sphere - such as Georgia and the Ukraine.

In the past, the key EU’s aspiration was to prevent serious crises and the most egregious violations of human rights in its neighbourhood. However, the previous Brussels neighbourhood policy cannot be considered fully effective, since changes in the spheres of democratization and civil society reformation were insignificant. At the beginning of the ENP it was believed that the development of the democracy and subsequently human rights will strengthen the security of the European Neighbourhood region. In fact, as shown by the example of the annexation of the Crimea, the EU security has been threatened. Under such circumstances, issues of democracy and human rights are side-lined. Considering the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the region, main efforts will now be directed towards security and stability restoration.

However, as emphasized by European diplomats, the EU does not abandon the work in the direction of civil society and human rights. Some efforts are made with regards to these issues. For example, in July 2015, the European Commission adopted a new Action Plan for Human Rights and Democracy 2015-2019. The document promises "additional political impetus and scaling-up of the commitment" to protect human rights worldwide. However, in light of the renewed ENP that prospect looks rather vague and is less noticeable in the foreign policy discussions.

The new stage of the Belarusian-European relations

The fact that EU’s policy pragmatism is wining is evidenced by the gradual recovery of the dialogue between Brussels and official Minsk. As it is known, the systematic and systemic violations of civil rights and freedom in Belarus were one of the reasons for the introduction of economic and visa sanctions against Lukashenka's regime by the EU. The last cycle of this "freeze" of relations has begun as a result of dispersal of peaceful demonstrations in Minsk after the presidential election in December 2010. Recently, however, there has been significant progress in Belarusian-European cooperation at the highest level. This progress has occurred primarily due to events in the Ukraine and desire of Minsk to normalize relations with the EU. Lukashenka managed to join the negotiation on Ukrainian issue as a "peacemaker" and organized a conversation about a ceasefire in the Ukrainian Donbass, which changed the image of the Belarusian foreign policy. As a result, Minsk has been attended by European leaders, including François Hollande and Angela Merkel, which no one has expected.

Moreover, realizing the real threat of the loss of sovereignty, the government shows greater restraint in the area of human rights violations. It is noted that pressure on independent journalists, as well as in relation to the cultural national initiatives, has decreased. Europe and the United States have welcomed the release of six political prisoners as well as the fact that the presidential elections in October of the last year took place in a peaceful atmosphere (not taking into the account the fact that due to the president’s actions the opposition was strongly reduced). As a result, a tendency towards weakening the pressure on the Belarusian leadership has started to emerge. In October, the EU Foreign Affairs Council decided to suspend the sanctions against some Belarusian high-ranking officials and businessmen (including the President) for four months. Official Minsk also started to hope for obtaining loans from international organizations. The decision on the future of frozen sanctions will be essentially influenced by the final report on elections by the ODIHR of OSCE. In case Minsk performs at least some of the OSCE recommendations, Europe can go to the restoration of full political contacts with the official Minsk.

Thus, the West is gradually changing its position with respect to the rigid autocratic Belarus, which is not related to any fundamental changes in the situation in Belarus. The non-liberalization of this regime is evidenced by the "graffiti artists’ case" as well as beating of the journalist and activists. However, in the context of the ongoing war in the Ukraine and tense situation in North Africa, the EU simply cannot allow the destabilization of another country in Eastern Europe. Hence the attempts to "reset" the European-Belarusian relations in a sustainable way. This approach is advantageous to the Belarusian government, considering that stability is a traditional landmark of Minsk.

In fact, it can be argued that the European Union accepts informal terms of the Belarusian authorities to depoliticize the dialogue. These circumstances have allowed the Belarussian opposition to accuse the EU of pragmatism and willingness to make a deal with the regime. It is possible that in case of Belarus, cooperation at the governmental level may mean EU’s recognition of greater importance of the country's independence, rather than democratic transformation. On the other hand, perhaps Brussels expands cooperation with the authorities, because it understands that reforms in Belarus depend precisely on them. This would not necessarily mean a reduction in support for non-governmental entities, as "two-track" support (EU-authorities and EU-civil society) will possibly give more dynamics to the issues of democratization. However, the deepening of the nomenclature of the dialogue with Lukashenka will undoubtedly level off the political role of civil society as an independent actor.

Warsaw and Minsk restore trust

Recently, certain changes are also observed in the Polish-Belarusian relations. According to Charge d'Affaires of Poland in Belarus Mikhail Habros, Warsaw and Minsk are at the stage of "incremental restoration of trust". It was possible to avoid principal disputes in bilateral relations, as well as increase number of meetings in the area of economic and technical cooperation. If the atmosphere continues to improve, Minsk will probably launch small border traffic with Poland and Lithuania. Facilitation of visa regime would not only establish connections between people, organizations and regions, which will bring practical benefits for the border population, but also bring important symbolic value to bilateral interstate relations.

According to the editor-in-chief of the governmental newspaper "Sovetskaya Belorussiya - Belarus Segodnya" Pavel Yakubovich, the attitude of the new Polish government to Belarus will be more balanced and realistic. On the other hand, it is believed that during the government of Lech Kaczynski and the party "Law and Justice" (pol. PiS), Poland supported the opposition and civil society in Belarus more strongly. Creation of an independent Belarusian-language television "Belsat" and Kalinouski scholarship program for repressed Belarusian students demonstrated this perfectly. Consequently, parallels are drawn and the opinion that the strong support will now be given in this direction has appeared. However, such a perspective is not that straightforward. For example, during this year the number of students from the Kalinouski program has decreased by 2 times. Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained this situation by the "reduction of repressions in Belarus."

The recent meeting of the Visegrad Countries with the Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei has showed that the restoration of cooperation with the official Minsk is more important than the support of the development of democracy in this country. Thus, it can be assumed that the future prospect of the Polish-Belarusian relations will be in the general context of a particular modification of the European policy towards Belarus.

Conclusions

In case of such countries as Belarus, to leave the human rights and civil society in the secondary area is a quite defective position. This has been clearly shown by the absolute failure of Russia's democratization plan through economic cooperation in the framework of the "Partnership for Modernization".

Due to the tense situation in the region, Brussels will probably take more accommodating stance with Belarus. In light of the new ENP one can expect some changes in the spheres of economic and energetic cooperation, modernization, technical assistance and visa regime easing. Accordingly, the short-term economic goals will prevail over the long-term development of the idea of democracy and the rule of law. However, it is premature to say that the EU abandons its fundamental democratic principles, as in the discussions on the lifting of sanctions the last word has not yet been spoken. In the short term, an important mechanism of promotion of democratic reforms in the neighbouring countries may be the inclusion of terms of human rights protection into the legally binding agreements, such as into the one on the provision of the financial support, which Belarus needs a lot now.

Lukasz Wenerski, Institute for Public Policy (Poland), specially for charter97.org

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