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Roman Yakovlevsky: The Neutrality Of Belarus Is Simply Absurd 

Roman Yakovlevsky: The Neutrality Of Belarus Is Simply Absurd 
ROMAN YAKOVLEVSKY  
PHOTO: CHARTER97.ORG

How can we talk about the Belarusian neutrality, bearing in mind the existing level of military and political alliance between Minsk and Moscow?

Roman Yakovlevsky, a well-known Belarusian political analyst, asked that question at the conference „Autocratical challenge for the European project - what to do and not to do”, which was held on May 25th in Warsaw. The event with the participation of leading experts from Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Germany was organized by the „Charter-97” and took place in the framework of the project „Eurasian challenge for Eastern Europe”, supported by the Visegrad Fund.

The website charter97.org presents the excerpts of the Roman Yakovlevsky’s speech at the conference:

„It is often said that the first „occurrence” of Lukashenko in Europe has been a tragedy. On December 19th 2010, the „presidential elections” were held, after which the democratic presidential candidates appeared in prison. It seemed that it was a wake-up call for Europe, that there would be no compromises anymore and a new period would begin.

Unfortunately, that did not happen. Nikolai Statkevich nicely described that situation. Various factors, including those in Europe, where the value basis of the European Union turned out to be blurred, allowed Lukashenko to start another „walk into Europe”. He went there not with empty hands, but with his instruments. One of such instruments - the Ministry of Defense of Belarus and, in particular, a new, emerged late last year, structure called the Department of International Military Cooperation, which, in my opinion, began to compete with the Foreign Ministry.

Army is admittedly a quite effective tool, which indicates that the Belarusian military forces are becoming the subject of politics in Belarus. Let us consider the new military doctrine of Belarus. In my opinion, the most important thing in this doctrine is the fact that the army is given the law enforcement functions, which implies that the fight is not with the outside world, but with the internal „enemy” (and this is the notorious „fifth column”). Lukashenko, as well as Putin, divided the country into a „fifth column” and „sixth ward”.

It is no secret that Lukashenko always lives in expectation of war. Only he could appoint his All-Belarusian meeting for June 22nd, a date so familiar for all the people. I cannot rule out the possibility that there he would utter the phrase of Stalinist style - „Brothers and Sisters”. All this could be commented with humor, unless there was only one “but”. Inner circle of Lukashenka attaches great importance to the fact that the teaching „Anaconda” will begin in June in Poland; and it will involve not only the NATO countries. And the Kremlin „encourages” Minsk with an “appropriate tone”, hence, neutrality of the Republic of Belarus - is simply absurd. What neutrality can we talk about at the existing level of military and political alliance between Minsk and Moscow? This, incidentally, applies also to the Ukraine.

Lukashenko’s peacekeeping is just, as he himself admitted, a bucket of coffee he served to Merkel and others in his palace. For some time now we can hear the Belarusian Minister of Defense pronouncing such characteristics in relation to Kiev as a „coup d'etat” and „Kiev junta”. Familiar terminology in Moscow. I asked the head of the Department of International Military Cooperation, General Voinov: „What does it mean? You're talking about a coup d'etat. Were neither presidential nor parliamentary elections held in Ukraine? What don’t you accept?” He answers: „This is what our commander-in-chief says”. And we have only one commander-in-chief - Lukashenko. By the way, in July, on the eve of the Warsaw Summit on NATO, a grand military parade on the occasion of the official Independence Day of Belarus will be held in Minsk; hence, we will see this commander-in-chief in uniform again.

Russian army units of „glorious” paratroopers commanded by General Shamanov, considered an executioner of the Chechen people, will participate at this parade as well. Regarding the Russian airbase in Belarus. People are being misled about the importance of this database. One Western diplomat quipped: „How should we understand the fact that there are Russian planes, but there is no base”. Today, the situation has worsened. Topic on the airbase was replaced by the issue of the missile. The emergence of Russian missiles in Belarus - I will stress that missiles are Russian, not Belarusian – has become possible. Is there a sensible person who would believe that Belarusians can make their missiles in Dzyarzhynsk near Minsk? There are no any resources or technology for that. Will the Chinese help? Well, if Lukashenko is going to take such a role as Albania had at times of Mao Zedong, when there were Chinese missiles – then it will be possible. That will certainly lower a level of safety in the region and any accident can be transformed into a huge conflict.

Finally, me and Andrei Sannikov have recently attended the Tallinn conference and noticed that Belarus was not mentioned in the discussions on the regional security. Kaliningrad and Russia were mentioned, Belarus - not. When asked why, they answered: in this context, we regard Belarus as a union state of Russia. While, at the same time, this „union state” is not a subject of international law. What does it mean? It means that we, as citizens of Belarus, cannot influence anything. We are just hostages of this policy.

The way Lukashenko acts in Minsk totally differs from the way he acts in Moscow. Brussels commissioners and European officials say that it is pragmatism. No, it is cynicism under the guise of pragmatism. Unfortunately, it implies very poor prospects, and not only for the Belarusian people. And Putin here simply „turns a deaf ear”.

The occupation of Crimea has established the „Putin's line” from Sukhumi to Kaliningrad. In Belarus, there is the „Stalin’s Line”. Here - „Putin's line”, an integral and essential part of which is sovereign Belarus”.

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