“Mirror Weekly”: Reign Of Lukashenko Is Under Threat

Falling living standards not only cause social unrest but also reduce loyalty of power agents.

The Belarusians can rightfully celebrate the victory of their foreign policy - the international isolation of the Belarusian leadership has been finally broken. For the first time in many years, Alexander Lukashenko visited Western Europe. His visit to Italy, where he met with Pope Francis I and Italian President Sergio Mattarella at the end of May, was the first since the autumn of last year, when the European Union has suspended long-standing sanctions against 171 Belarusians and 3 companies, - writes Vladimir Kravchenko in the newspaper “Mirror Weekly”.

This decision was adopted by the EU after the release of political prisoners in Minsk. The United States also softened their sanctions. „Belarus is now entering a new period of relations with the West”, - was noted in Washington, DC, which is ready to discuss mutual return of ambassadors and military attaches.

The capital of Belarus has been already visited by a lot of representatives of the European Union and the United States. It is obvious that the Lukashenko’s trip to Italy will be followed by other trips to EU countries. Since the beginning of the „thaw”, Minsk and Brussels began negotiations on the liberalization of the visa regime and returned to the dialogue on human rights. Belarus resumed its participation in the Eastern Partnership, and the country's leaders started talking about joining the WTO.

Last fall, the Belarusian opposition has negatively assessed the European Union's decision to suspend sanctions. Many believe that the European Union chose pragmatism in its relations with Belarus. But, according to the Belarusian political analyst Roman Yakovlevsky, politics of the West is dominated by cynicism.

It's hard not to agree with this assessment. After all, the decision to unfreeze relations with authoritarian Belarus meant not only the success of the Belarusian diplomacy, maneuvering between the West and Russia, but also the strengthening of the Lukashenko’s regime and the weakening of the democratic opposition.

Western experts often say that independence of Belarus must be strengthened, otherwise it will be absorbed by Russia. In fact, the West does not know what to do with authoritarian Belarus: Brussels has strategy neither in relation to Lukashenko nor in relation to the democratic opposition. Against this background, „the multi-vector policy” of Minsk looks successful. But the maneuvering between Russia and the EU - when Lukashenko frightens Moscow with his movement to the West and flirts with Brussels using liberalization of his regime - implies the difficult economic situation in Belarus and the ever-increasing influence of the Kremlin on this country.

Belarus is strongly tied to Russia economically. Russian economic problems negatively influence the Belarusian economy. As the economist Leonid Zlotnikov notes, energy subsidies and Russian loans to Belarus have decreased during the last two years. Today, Belarus experiences the economic downturn: the Belarusian ruble is devalued; incomes are decreasing; the number of insolvent companies, overdue debt and unemployment are increasing.

International organizations forecast that economic recession in Belarus will seriously worsen in the coming years. According to the estimates of experts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the country's planned GDP will fall by 0.5-1.5% this year. The IMF predicts that GDP will decline by 2.7%, the World Bank predictions - by 3%.

The deteriorating economic situation in Belarus threatens the power of Alexander Lukashenko. After all, falling living standards not only cause social unrest but also reduce loyalty of power agents, backbone of the regime. At the same time, Russian secret service has a strong influence on the Belarusian KGB and the army. Hence, any changes in the leadership of Belarus in the near future can be attributable only to the Kremlin and the local security forces.

Minsk is well aware of this threat, I suppose. However, the Russian arsenal includes not only a stick, but also a carrot. Since the Belarusian economy is subsidized, its stabilization can be achieved only through reforms and loans. It is possible that the West, wishing to strengthen the independence of Belarus, will provide all the necessary funds. But the Kremlin will respond to this situation by trying to offer better conditions than the West. And this is exactly what is needed for Lukashenko, who traditionally parasitizes on the economic and military-political interests of Moscow in Minsk: Belarus for Russia – is an outpost on its western borders. And Belarusian authorities themselves see Moscow as a military and political ally, and their military cooperation is being strengthened.

As it is noted by Andrei Sannikov, the former candidate for presidency in Belarus, „military exercises are frequently held. In September, joint military exercises of airborne forces will be carried out. The armed forces of the two countries are in constant contact with each other. Belarus has the military infrastructure, which Russia could use at any time”.

Today, Moscow expresses great interest in the appearance of the Russian air base in Bobruisk. This issue was raised on May 16th, when Lavrov visited Minsk. By the way, as reported by the RFI, not only this issue, but also the Belarusian accommodation of the operational-tactical missile complex „Iskander” was discussed during the meeting.

The prospect of Russian air base in Bobruisk disturbs Kiev, as this will allow Moscow to establish a permanent military threat on the northern borders with Ukraine. Although Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly rejected the possibility of attacks on the Ukraine from his territory, bearing in mind the specifics of his regime, we cannot be sure that the Russian planes will not fly through the Ukrainian-Belarusian border to bomb Ukrainian towns and villages.

If necessary, the Russian government will present the puppet Belarusian government with a fait accompli. Europe is also extremely concerned about the prospect of a Russian air base in Belarus. „This will not only increase the level of mistrust, but also raise the threat of accidental war. Placement of Russian forces there will pose a threat to security in the region”, - considers Wolfgang Zender, an employee of the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

In the past, Lukashenko has publicly opposed the location of the Russian air base on the territory of Belarus. According to him, accommodation of the base in Belarus will bring more disadvantages than advantages. One reason for the negative attitude towards Russia's initiative, according to Belarusian experts, is not only a lack of Minsk desire to get involved in Russia-West confrontation, but also a growing concern that the military bases could be used by Russians as an instrument for interfering into the internal political processes and putting pressure on the Belarusian leadership.

However, the probability that the Russian airplanes will be soon based in Bobruisk is still high. Experts consider the position of Alexander Lukashenko as another bargaining between Belarus and Russia. His subject may traditionally be the allocation of credit or other preferences.

As noted by Stanislav Shushkevich, the former head of the Belarusian parliament, „Russia wants to put the bases and demonstrate its imperial character. Lukashenko is going to accept this, he has no choice, otherwise he will lose his reign. Without the support of Russia, he will lose his reign”.

However, Sannikov does not rule out that the topic of a new base in Belarus is raised in order to blackmail the West and solicit loans. Ukrainian experts, in their turn, do not exclude that the talk about the base is one of the elements of Moscow’s pressure on the Ukraine and its international partners to make them accept Russian conditions on the resolution of the „conflict in Donbas”.

In any case, for Kiev, it is very important to understand that Belarus of Alexander Lukashenko is not a neutral and friendly country, but an ally of the aggressor.