"Reliable" Regimes Gone Quickly Enough

The Belarusian government faces new challenges.

-We are really proud that amid this anxious time Belarus is rightfully considered an island of stability, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said at the state awards ceremony on May 5. - This is a great merit of people wearing uniform, who secure an order and stability in the society, guard the borders, fight criminality and protect the life and property of citizens.

Zaytra Tvaye Krainy asked experts how long this period of "stability" could remain, and what might jeopardize it.

Stability is one of the Belarusian myths

- First, I would doubt our country is the island of stability, political scientist Valery Karbalevich says. - Is it possible to be reliable, if prices grow every week? And the inflation level of 12% is planned for a year, but the currency exchange rate suffers fluctuations of 10%. This Belarusian myth is a part of the state propaganda, ideological structure.

The expert believes that the country is reliable, if prices and national currency exchange rate are stable over years.

- I would say this is the element of an idle time, Valery Karbalevich notes.

The main challenge, according to the expert, is the crisis of a social model, and it is getting more evident.

Karbalevich reminds that many regimes outwardly reliable turned into ruins quickly enough. At first glance, minor reasons might cause it.

- The czarist regime was stable in Russia. But something unpredictable happened: the snow drifted of the railways and it was not possible to deliver food in Petersburg. It caused protests and in two weeks it resulted in the fall of the regime, Karbalevich says. - Or let's take the establishment of an independent Trade Union at the Gdansk dockyard, in a year and a half a major part of its member were the Polish.