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Marholin: It's Heartening To See Semashka’s Optimism, But There Are No Reasons For It

Marholin: It's Heartening To See Semashka’s Optimism, But There Are No Reasons For It
LEU MARHOLIN

The Deputy Prime Minister Semashka expects Belarus to show beneficial results in industrial production before the end of the year.

The economist Leu Marholin thinks that the forecast of the Deputy Prime Minister sounds too good to be true.

“It’s hearting to see the Deputy Prime Minister’s optimism, – Leu Marholin said in his interview to the site ucpb.org. – He is an old political stager and he has seen different situations, so, maybe, this experience gives him grounds to announce that Belarusian industry will show beneficial results before the end of the year. But it should be remembered that industrial production decreased by more than 6% in 2015 if compared to 2014. And in the first quarter of 2016, the fall in production was 4.3% if compared to the first quarter of 2015. So the growth should be rather significant to cover this fall. Even Semashka doesn’t promise such growth. Moreover, even Lukashenka doesn’t promise such growth. Even by the end of the five year period the growth of 10% will be considered modest, taking into account the falls that have happened. Though, it’s very little - 10% for five years.

Besides this, there are no proper reasons for such optimism also because the oil price is not going to rise and no one is going to lift sanctions against Russian Federation. And these factors are the main powerhouse of Belarusian economy and, first of all, of Belarusian industry. And no serious investments are to be expected too. Moreover, although the tough monetary policy that the government and the National Bank follow today, may lead to a temporary strengthening of the Belarusian ruble, but it doesn’t allow to finance industrial production even by the usual method of inflationary pumping of money that has been used by the Belarusian government during the last 20 years.

So it's, for sure, heartening to see such optimism, but I see no reasons for it yet.”

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