Belarusian Authorities Were Advised Not To Pass Stagnation Off As Progress

The situation in the Belarusian economy remains sad; the 2016 has “borrowed” the recession of 2015.

Belarusian authorities try to pass stagnation off as progress, Holger Rapior, the Deputy Ambassador of Germany to Belarus, notes. According to him, it is needed to take more decisive steps to lift the Belarusian economy out of the recession. Besides, the scope and quality of the measures should be different. It not enough just to rise the Belarus' position in the ranking of Doing Business, Belorusskaya Delovaya Gazeta writes.

The German diplomat said this at the seminar on macroeconomics that was held by the IPM Research Center in Minsk on June 2.

Opening the workshop, he said that the very name of the seminar "The macroeconomic outlook in anticipation of structural reforms" causes double feeling, which transforms from seriousness to smile in respect of the second part of the name: what structural reforms are referred to?

“I don’t see any reforms at all,” – Holger Rapior said. According to him, some mixed signals about readiness for change were coming from the Belarusian side last year, but the head of state spoke out against any reforms. In a certain sense, it is a "forbidden territory" for the Belarusian officials.

The situation in the Belarusian economy remains sad; the 2016 has “borrowed” the recession of 2015. The situation has worsened. Foreign trade is reducing, including trade with the EU. According to the forecast of the World Bank, the GDP will continue to fall in 2016-2017.

The diplomat recalled the words of the First Deputy Prime Minister Matsiusheuski on development by the "worst case scenario" and he noted that there were optimists in Belarus as well. For example, Lukashenka forecasts a 12% growth in economy in the five-year period, and Mikhail Myasnikovich, the Chairman of the "Council of Republic", in general expects 15% of economic growth by 2021. Foreign analysts are more cautious in their forecasts.

The Belarusian authorities try to pass stagnation off as progress, Holger Rapior concluded. “In my opinion, more decisive steps are needed to lift the Belarusian economy out of the recession,” – he said. Besides, the diplomat believes that the scope and quality of the measures should be different. It not enough just to rise the Belarus' position in the ranking of Doing Business.