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Economists: Discount On Russian Gas Won’t Help Belarusians

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Economists: Discount On Russian Gas Won’t Help Belarusians

New gas prices are beneficial only for a narrow circle of officials.

According to the newspaper “Kommersant”, Russia and Belarus have tentatively agreed on a new formula for calculating the cost of Russian gas. Now dollar will not appear in the calculation and the price of gas will fall.

In particular, the formula for determining the price of gas will change and all calculations will be done in rubles, which will “minimize the risks of Belarus associated with the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate”.

The gas price for Belarus will be reduced from $132 to approximately $100 per 1 thousand cubic meters.

Economists clarified to charter97.org website, if the achieved agreement between Belarus and Russia on the price of the “blue fuel” can be considered a success.

– With regard to the transition to payments in rubles, Russia made the right decision. After all, it was very strange – Belarus and Russia had created a kind of federal state, a customs union, but our neighbors continued to raise invoices in dollars. Transition to rubles in the deals for gas demonstrate that thinking process is still going in Russia, however, at a rate of 1 centimeter in 25 years, – the head of the analytical center “Strategy” Leanid Zaika says.

– How fair is the gas price of 100 dollars per thousand cubic meters?

– I know exactly that gas costs about $ 15 per thousand cubic meters at the places of gas output. Another 40 per cent of this sum – the cost of transportation. So, the fair price for Russian gas is 25-30 dollars. Anything more than this sum – is the costs of luxury mansions and foreign ownership for those who oils their palms at Gazprom. I think that Belarusians shouldn’t bother about the price of gas - their lives will not be affected. The only thing you can think about in this connection is why we pay $ 100 instead of $ 30.

In his turn, Doctor of Economics Barys Zhaliba believes that the transition to payments in Russian rubles is a purely technical solution, which does not reduce the risks of Belarus associated with the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate.

– The exchange rate of Russian ruble is connected to the world currency, so you should not count on some kind of stability associated with exchange rates, – Barys Zhaliba believes.

– In any case, Belarus has to pay off the debt for gas to Russia, which is more than 200 million dollars. How “much” is this amount for us?

– Any sum, which equals to hundreds of millions of dollars, is almost too much for us. It can significantly affect our revenues and foreign exchange reserves.

– How do you think, will the decrease in gas prices affect the financial condition of our enterprises?

– The crisis in our country is so deep, and the situation at the enterprises is so sad that the discount on gas of $ 30 will do little to help the dying enterprises to stand up from their knees and to find a second wind. Besides, it’s not the fact that the Belarusian government will reduce the price of gas for the enterprises. After all, the authorities buy the fuel at one price, but sell it to the enterprises at a completely different one, and the difference goes on the purposes of which we know nothing, and the authorities do not advertise them.

I can definitely say that the price of gas will not change for individual customers. On the contrary, the price for gas will continue to rise during the next two years, until it reaches the production cost.

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