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The Authorities Clearly Lost

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The Authorities Clearly Lost
Photo: EPA/UPG

Will the opposition manage to take advantage of the situation?

The show headed by Lidziya Yarmoshyna can be called whatever but elections. Although Lukashenka stated on the eve of the voting day that he had done everything so that the West would like this “parliamentary campaign”, the West once again refused to recognize the elections as real, fair and free.

Nevertheless, the US State Department informs, the choice is still there: either the Belarusian authorities start respecting human rights and democracy, or the United States renew the sanctions against the official Minsk despite some improvements, noticed from the other side of the ocean.

Host of the “Hot Comment” at BelSAT TV-channel Valery Ruselik has told about this with coordinator of the “European Belarus” civil campaign Zmitser Bandarenka.

– I would like to start our conversation from the action of September 12, during which you demanded new elections. One of the participants thereof Zmitser Dashkevich said that candidate “Boycott” and candidate “Against All” had been the ones who really won at these “parliamentary elections”. Do you agree with his definition or do you have a different opinion?

– This appears a very precise and creative assessment of the situation. We do know that even at the famous district #97 where the two well-known ladies ran, the journalist of Nasha Niva recorded the turnout of 25%, thus Boycott won, and most people voted against all.

– Herein, this campaign wasn’t noticeable for broad calls for boycott or for “against all” voting. Does it mean that Belarusians are so fed up with everything that there’s no need to urge them to boycott or ignore these “elections”?

– You know, I like the word "marketing". And the rule is: if the people do not want to buy a certain product, then do not force it upon them. Only some party leaders cannot understand it. They think that if they call, the people will come. No! The Belarusians are smart people. They had been deceived a couple of times and they would not buy it ever again.

– I rejoice every time when our guests on air call us, Belarusians, smart people, being generous for compliments. It provides a great contrast to the way the authorities insult the Belarusian people. As for the authorities – they did their best for the West to like them. However, something went wrong – the West didn’t like the “elections”. Does it mean that despite the official victory of the pro-government candidates at these “elections”, the authorities actually lost? Can we say so

– Surely they lost. The West is hard to deceive, just like the Belarusian people. I think that the signal for the authorities’ readiness to hold at least some economic reforms would have been the appointment of Lukashenka’s economic advisor Rudy to the position of a Vice-PM or PM. But when they sent this person to China for an “exile”, it became absolutely clear for the West that there will be nothing more than the old song “give us money” all over again.

– What can we expect from Lukashenka in such situation? Will he continue the attempts to play liberalization or will he return to the routine actions and strengthen repressions against the society, the police will start seizing people again etc., as the West didn’t like the “elections”?

– The West is different. They will try to take those appointees around Europe, then Lukashenka will become jealous and send to prison those of them who will look in the Western direction the most. This will be a sort of a game. I don’t believe there will be repressions as the economic problems remain severe. The GDP hasn’t grown for the 6th year in a row in fact, and repressions seem unreasonable in a situation like this. It’s just impossible given the level of openness of the Belarusian economy.

– As for the prognosis, there is another interesting moment: before and during the “elections”, Lukashenka boasted that we had agreed with Russia on gas, and the US Ambassador would come, and everything was alright, and Clinton was our best friend. However, it turns out now that there has been no gas agreement, and the Ambassador won’t come. It seems that Lukashenka failed in everything, does it? Or does he have someone he can rely on? On the IMF, for instance, as it starts working in Belarus soon.

– Perhaps he will get something. Most likely, from some private banks. This may happen, in order to prevent complete destabilization. But if the Russian market is lost, the European markets are lost, loans will not help. In general, the West's gross domestic product is calculated basing on the goods sold, and not on what is lying in the warehouses in Belarus. Therefore, it is an economic dead end, and it will last for four to five years.

– What about Russia, on which the Belarusian authorities traditionally hope? Is it worth hoping for something in that direction? Or is it a punishment, a signal that they don’t need any more parasites – "flies in one place, cutlets in another"? Or will there be any trade, probably, appearance of new Russian military bases?

– Let us look again at the suggestions of even the pro-Putin deputies to reduce the budget of the Russian Federation by 6%. They even suggest reducing of financing of Russia’s Ministry of Defense. In a situation like this, there will be no support to Lukashenka. Yes, Russia sets up conditions: sell us your enterprises at a give-away price or in repayment of old debts: “Belaruskaliy”, a part of MAZ, something else. However, the situation in Russia remains dead-ended, because the prices for oil will not grow. The revolution in extraction of oil and gas has already won, and even if the prices do grow, the number of drilling units in the United States will also grow. And if the number of drilling units starts growing, the prices for oil will fall. All of them.

– I would like to return to the search of winners and losers in these "elections". The Belarusian authorities appear in a difficult position. The situation remains a deadlock just everywhere. Basically, it's the perfect time the opposition has taken the lead in their own hands. Can we say that the opposition has won at these "elections" because it has two representatives of the UCP and the Belarusian Language Society in the "parliament", which hasn’t happened for a long time? At the same time the West did not recognize these "elections", what the opposition had also predicted. Can we, at least, consider the opposition the winner at these "elections"?

– If you mean the opposition capable of strategic thinking than yes. This was a campaign of wearing the enemy down. Just imagine those teachers, whose salaries reduced, and who were forced to fold the people, whose incomes also decreased, to the voting stations. This was a weary campaign for the authorities.

We have already gone through the presence of conditional Abramava and Navasiad. No changes happened in fact. As for Kanapatskaya, I already commented this: they took this person to make her seek loans for Lukashenka. She informed this by herself at the very first press-conference. I don’t know about Anisim, but it seems to me she is some sort of a “embroidered shirt candidate”, technologically speaking.

– The mood of the times?

– No, just a formality. There is an official embroidered flag, and the “chamber” should contain not only the communists, but also at least one “embroidered deputy”.

For the Belarusian people it is certainly a plus that Lukashenka could not drive the people to the "elections". The 25% figure provided by the journalist of Nasha Niva - this is the real turnout. Maybe it is even less, because the falsified voter lists remain. Maybe, the turnout was even 20%.

Victar Malochka and Volha Mayorava from the United Civil Party became real heroes of this campaign – they said it was necessary to be honest and not to be fraud oppositionists. Also, of course, journalist Yahor Martsinovich who revealed the truth in the district #97, precinct #205. I consider this an achievement. There are people in the opposition whom one can look up to.

– What about the others, returning to the action on September 12? Not many people came, there were close to none party leaders – they actually ignored the action. What does it show?

– I believe there will be the division of the opposition to those who adhere to values, who believe that the opposition must be different from the authorities in the moral sense, and to those who made a deal with their conscience and the authorities. It remains really strange, because there was a common agreement of the opposition parties and organizations together, that the theme of protests against falsifications will be raised. But then, in the end, Liabedzka said that such actions should not be done like a bolt from the blue. Excuse me, he signed the agreement to prepare this action. Maybe he had just agreed with the authorities before.

It was the action of dignity; no one expected it to be mass. If the people were reluctant to act and didn’t go to the "elections", they would not be active in the streets either. So far, the Belarusians have firmly entrenched in a trench and sit there.

– Is this action a display of another disruption or purification of the opposition?

– It has nothing to do with disruption. It’s the United Civil Party which provokes disruption when agrees with a fraud. They don’t understand that it makes no difference for the people whether they are fraudsters of Lukashenka or fraudsters of the UCP. In this sense, the UCP people like Malochka and Mayorava, and some others, remain role-models. Even Kanapatskaya herself stated: “I would have returned the mandate if the party had told me to.” This is also a signal. She feels, she reads in the social networks what the Belarusians think of her.

We are having a normal crisis today. Meanwhile, the crisis is the engine of progress.

– There remains another moment which the party leaders often mention when they assess the activity of their parties. They say that the most important mission today is to preserve the party structures. How do you think: is it really necessary to keep those structures today or is it better to create something new, which those opposition leaders who are still capable of taking people to the streets, though not many, tell about? I mean Statkevich, Niakliaeu in particular. They declared creation of a new movement. What is more important: to keep those structures alive and drive them to some origins, or to create something new, pure, perfect, radiant?

– The fact remains that the authorities have lost. However, the opposition will win only when they learn to hear the people, to feel the nerve of the situation. Then there might be changes, and for this, there will be the urge for new people, new actions, new forms. This is doubtless. Still, the most important thing is that the authorities have lost! They are incapable of making the people’s lives any better.

Now the opposition has time to look around, to think, to hear the people. When this happens, changes will be inevitable. Statkevich, and Nyaklyaeu, and me, too, stick to the idea that there is a need for new free and fair elections. With this you can contact the society, the West and a part of the government. Because today, officials and palace businessmen are jailed, in the same KGB prison, significantly more often than the opposition.

– Zmitser, let us continue on this new form, if we speak about demanding new free elections. In which form should this demand come? Should it be the repeatedly mentioned streets protests, or, maybe, a series of vivid performances from the candidates which were rather new at these “parliamentary elections”? How should it happen?

– There must be pressure on the authorities. On the one side, there comes domestic economic pressure, the authorities fail to handle the situation. There must be pressure also from the side of the opposition and the people. I read today that pensioners had blocked the road in some settlement. This is the first signal. “Perestroika” started with the people blocking roads. They do it already without any parties.

We are offering a peaceful way out – through the elections! Who is the smartest guy in the government? Let’s talk about this. We also tell the West – put pressure on the regime! There should be agreements, there should be negotiations. New free fair elections may become a way out for everybody.

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