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A Lot Depends On Belarus

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A Lot Depends On Belarus

Can a war start in Europe today?

Former Minister of Defence of Poland Romuald Szeremietiew asked this question during the discussion “Geopolitical Situation in the Intermarium region and Its Impact on Human Rights in Belarus,” which was held on September 28 at the OSCE Human Dimension Implementation Meeting in Warsaw.

Charter97.org publishes the full text of Romuald Szeremietiew’s address:

– A lot of of my friends, who have never been interested in international politics, have started to ask: will there be a war?

Why has this question come up? It is evident that there is peace in the world now, and a war is not going to happen. Anyway, we have been assured of that for the last 20 years: a war was not supposed to happen in Europe.

I believe that the world now should focus on Central Europe. And I have some bad news for friends from Belarus. The key role will be played by your country.

The world order has started to change. When the so-called Versailles order was created, it was at some time contested by two empires – first, the Soviet Union, and then, the Third Reich. These states decided to change that order and changed it. It is not worth mentioning, what the consequences were for Poland, Belarus and many other European countries.

Now again there have emerged some centers of power, which called into question the leadership of the United States, arguing that it is unfair, if a single superpower decides for everyone. They say the others must also wield power. And the Russian Federation is one of those wanting to change the world order.

According to the concept of the father of geopolitical science Mackinder, all the imperial ambitions, displayed by the states, intersect on the East - West line. A key element in this world competition for a superpower position is the seizure of Central Europe or control over it.

This set-up of the East confronting the West in the region of Central Europe belongs to modern history and goes back 200-250 years. There hadn’t been events of such a kind before. Yes, there had been the Mongol-Tartar invasion, the Turkish attacks, but Europe was having a feeling of safety then, and there hadn’t been events of such a kind.

All that changed with the advent of the World Wars, the most destructive ones. And, by the way, it became possible after the partition of the Commonwealth of Poland and Grand Duchy of Lithuania. The state, which used to make a war between the East and the West impossible, disappeared from that very part of Europe.

It happened not only due to Moskals (Russians), but also because of Prussians, who built the German Reich. At that point, the way to wars between the East and the West was opened.

What do I mean? There are two nations on the European continent, which see themselves as an empire. This is very noticeable when it comes to Russia. The Russians say they are proud of their country, if “all are afraid of them.” Conversely, there are periods of decline, or the so-called troubled times, when “all are laughing at them.”

Today, Russians are proud of Russia, because “everyone is afraid of them.” President Putin and his colleagues strengthen their position in the country, supporting this sentiment.

There is another nation, which used to have imperial aspirations – this is Germany. From the moment when Prussia built the Second Reich, the Germans have twice demonstrated their imperial ambitions, attacking the eastern countries.

The paradox of our peoples, who are between Germany and Russia, is that the both sides in the case of implementation of their imperial ambitions “are to come for us.”

The Intermarium concept is an attempt to create a structure, which will be strong enough, because none of the nations living here alone has the capacity to withstand the threat, which is now coming from Russia.

The idea of the Intermarum is widespread. I have no doubt, that this project is needed. But is it possible?

After the First World War, Poland was trying to implement certain projects that could rebuild the geopolitical space, which would be a counterweight to these imperial ambitions from the East and the West. But it failed to make it.

It did not work for several reasons. The main reason was that the nations in Central and Eastern Europe got a chance to restore their independence. The political thinking of these people was concerned with the national idea, which declared that they would not resign themselves to another's control.

We dreamed about the Great Poland with lands that used to belong to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Great Ukraine, the Great Lithuania and even the Great Belarus. We did not find a common language at that time. We failed. It turned out that the national consciousness was so strong that it brought to a standstill the project, which Jozef Pilsudski was trying to implement.

Reasoning about whether it is possible to create such an association or not, we do not consider the factors that I would call civilizational: our existing as a society, the values, which are important to us, the way of our cooperation.

Russia is a different civilization. It is not a western civilization. If human rights, democracy are very important part of our civilization order, they do not matter that much in Russia.

And now the question arises: what kind of civilization do peoples living in Central Europe consider theirs? For example, people in Belarus? Is the Western civilization with democracy and human rights significant for them? Or else, is the Moscow civilization with its strong power, unconditional submission and implementation of all the words of command more congenial for Belarusians? A man has no rights there, and he even does not need them. The authorities and the ruler think for him. In my opinion, we hit a hitch due to this problem at the time of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

Now the education of young Belarusians in European universities, education in our civilization is the most vital thing. This is the highroad to success, if we talk about the changing of the system.

The second way is: the Intermarum countries must act together to prevent a change in the international order, as it can end badly. Yes, there might be a war.

I believe that Belarus is still a key country, without which it is impossible to solve the issue of security in the region and throughout Europe. A lot depends on Belarus.

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