Deceit in Economic Nightmare :: Charter'97 :: News

Alexander Lukashenko has numerously stated that Belarus is developing better than any other CIS state and that it reached 1990 level in terms of its export turnover. It was allegedly the first country to overcome the lengthy crisis. In the NTV program “Freedom of Speech” he even stressed that the production volume last year amounted to 102% as compared to the year 1990. These statements produced different reactions among the public. Independent economists and experts comment on them ironically. But what’s the real situation?

I set my mind to clarify it. To do this I had to study the newspaper files and statistical data for the years 1990 and 2001. I paralleled the production volumes of ten years from now and last year’s. And here’s what I arrived at.

Most important types of products manufactured

Product 1990 2001

Tractors (thsd) 100,7 22,7

Trucks (thsd) 42 16,5

Mineral fertilizers (thsd tons) 6000 4379,1

Chemical tissues (thsd tons) 453 221,1

Tyres for cars and agricultural vehicles (thsd) 4575 2666,3

Metal-cutting devices 15,500 5,704

Bricks (mln) 2331 2078,1

Fabric (thsd square m) 511 249,2

TV sets (thsd) 1301 727,3

Refrigerators (thsd) 728 836,5

Watches (thsd) 13,400 5,228

Motorbikes (thsd) 225 19,7

Bikes (thsd) 846 766,6

Paper (thsd tons) 198 49,2

Footwear (mln pairs) 45,4 13,5

So what picture do we arrive at? While in 1990 there have been produced over a hundred thousand tractors, in 2001 – only 22,700, which is 4,4 times less. In other words, the level of 1990 remains unbeaten. Or may be in our days 22,000 is more that 100,000?

Someone may counter: “Why do you count those tractors? May be this is the only commodity in decline, while the rest see greater progress.” But you better see for yourself in order to realize whether this is so or not. Examine, dear readers, the afore-mentioned data and you’ll see a huge gap between the production levels of 1990 and 2001 as far as the vital products are concerned.

Now let’s take a look at agriculture.

Production of basic agricultural products and cattle-breeding

Basic cereals 1990 2001

Grain (thsd tons) 7,035 5,152,7

Potatoes (thsd tons) 8,590 7,767

Sugar beet (thsd tons) 1,479 1,682

Cattle and poultry (thsd tons of pure weight) 1,529 669,1

Milk (thsd tons) 5,661 2,951

Eggs (mln) 2,245 1,023

Horned cattle, (thsd) 6351 3447,3

Cows 1758 1223,9

Pigs 3682 2102,4

Same picture here again. Quite frustrating. The amount of cattle as compared with 1990 fell by almost twice, pigs – 1,5 times, eggs – more than twice, same with milk and poultry.

So, how can one interpret Lukashenko’s optimistic statement about his successes? To put it mild, this is clear populism, targeting naive folks. Lukashenko and his cronies like passing false for the true. They say that Belarus’ economy is fine, so is the human rights situation, freedom of speech and what not. The Belarusian economic models bears great result, see!

A couple of years ago the man said that Belarus is developing at the highest rate in the whole of Europe. However, following the ironic grins of the independent experts and journalists, his boastings stopped. But now he starts it all over again. The one thing most dreadful for both the client and the medic is the false diagnosis. Sooner or later it will come to the surface anyway, for there’s no way one can hide it. Regrettably, curing the hidden disease is way more tough that an open one at the initial stage.