Rating’s Falling. On Sociologists’ Heads :: Charter'97 :: News

In the ancient Persia they used to behead the messengers who brought in bad news. Since then things became somewhat more civilized. Sociologists, who voice negative statistics about the authorities, may only be deprived of a possibility to do professional business. Latest NISEPI poll produced unsatisfactory results for the Belarusian authorities. Two main figures are circulating around the state press. First, Lukashenko’s rating fell to 27% (in April – 30,9%, last October – 46%). Secondly, only 15,5% Belarusians are ready to vote for Lukashenko’s prolongation of term.

How can the unattractive rating be lifted? No doubt, the people are angered by the impoverishment and they should correct the situation. But the planned economy resources are already exhausted. It will only be worse in the future.

That means we got to follow another route – produce an illusion of mass support. The history has vivid examples of it. In the 30ies of the last century in USSR: despite the enforced collectivization, starvation and mass slaughter of innocent people, the Soviet nation unanimously voted for the Stalin’s policy. Of course, these are different times but the arsenal of repressive measures and official propaganda can still be of use. And they use it everywhere. The most typical examples are the recent closures of the newspapers “Pagonya” and “Nasha Svaboda”, sentencing of the journalists Markevich, Mozheiko and Ivashkevich, exertion of pressure against the strongest political parties. Sociologists’ term seems to come next.

There continues a process, commenced by the Cabinet of Ministers’ ruling #707 of May 31 – “On the Commission for surveys of the National Academy of sciences”. This document, which opens with a sacramental passage, already envisaged the efficient leverages on managing the public opinion examination process. Here’s its core essence: the organization, which collects data on the political situation in the country forwards to the Commission a written notification and commitment to observe legislation rules and the order of holding sociological research, procession and interpretation of sociological data. The potential violators of the convention are reminded of their responsibility under the Belarusian legislation.

However, if in that case there was only an informational message, then the barely known Cabinet of Ministers’ ruling #1174 of August 29, 2002 put the independent sociologists in an even more dependent state. In order to hold investigations, they will need the accreditation of the afore-mentioned commission, which means that they can receive it or get shut.

By the way, their August ruling also appointed the head of the mighty body – professor Igor Kotlyarov. At the moment the man is on a holiday leave, though he is called to form the commission within three months. In other words, by December the institution will start functioning.

- They are pursuing the goal of strangling the independent investigation, - concluded today in the conversation with the author of these lines deputy NISEPI director Alexander Sosnov: “Of all the independent structures they may pick up some more or less acceptable and take over it.” The man isn’t sure that NISEPI will manage to pass through accreditation: “We truly are an independent institute, as different from others”…

Nonetheless, in this century of information it is next to impossible to impose control over the public opinion sector. Even if they start denying accreditation and persecute. “Historically, any type of totalitarianism is doomed,” – philosophically concluded Sosnov.

The current authorities are also able to prolong their political life regardless of their ratings. At least, they may try to. And it will be utterly sad should the falling rating crush on the heads of the sociologists and journalists, whose mission is to bring true news to the regime. Even if they are bad.

Alexander KLASKOVSKY, “Belorusskiye Novosti”