Lukashenko to Start Relations with West Anew :: Charter'97 :: News

West, in its NATO and EU enlargement eastwards, must pay greater attention to the Republic of Belarus, for the collapse of Alexander Lukashenko’s regime might be well around the corner. Belarus still dwells under the despotic yoke of dictatorship. The Council of Europe even notes the deterioration of human rights situation in this former Soviet republic. Lukashenko’s economic model, targeted at the conservation of Soviet socialism, suffered a crushing defeat. The situation is worsened by the country’s international isolation.

Lukashenko first of all needs West for personal survival. “Special” relations with Russia are undergoing a deep crisis. For many a year Lukashenko talked integration with Russia, while in reality this rhetoric only helped him get additional subsidies from Russia to uphold his backward economy. In late summer 2002 Putin voiced a sensational statement: according to him, Belarus must take unification serious and join Russia according to the German model: six Belarusian regions must turn into the new regions of the Russian Federation.

Lukashenko protested and immediately retreated. Today he no longer wills unification with Russia. He came under tremendous pressure, being forced to give up his control over emission and state property, liable to privatization, and pass it to Russia. Literally these days the Russian energy giant “Sibneft” took over the controlling stock of shares of the Russian-Belarusian petroleum concern “Slavneft”.

Kremlin’s pragmatism drives Lukashenko into a corner. Moscow ruthlessly demands from Belarus a return of huge debts, which the brotherly Slavic nation had been forgiven in 90ies. When the Belarusian side pleaded to reduce customs tariffs, Moscow replied with a demand to put the Belarusian tax system in conformity with the Russian. This, however, is next to impossible due to the discrepancies, existing between the socialist system of Belarus and capitalist – of Russia. In complete despair, Lukashenko printed more money and worked out a plan of actions in order to enhance the volume of foreign investments in Belarus in the year 2003, which now constitutes $3bln by an extra $1,5bln. They also intend to actively attract western entrepreneurs to the privatization of state property. Lukashenko would not feel at ease, if left alone with Russian oligarchs.

Lukashenko’s most up-to-date problem is lack of opportunity to act as Russia’s anti-western mouthpiece. According to the opposition politician Anatoly Lebedko, the pan-Slavic idea became extinct after September 11 events. If in the 90ies Lukashenko could offer his country to the nationalistically minded Russian elite as a stronghold against West, which provided him with political and financial privileges, then after the start of cooperation between Putin and West this policy lost any sense whatsoever.

In particular, in his relations with West Lukashenko changed his mind and made certain concessions – he returned the OSCE mission back in the country. He will necessarily have to resume interrupted relations with the West. Nonetheless, one can hardly expect radical change in his anti-western policy.