Will West`s Mixed Signals Deter Lukashenka? :: Charter'97 :: News

While the world`s eyes are riveted to the war in Iraq, even with the most high-profile international human rights body in session at the UN, dictators in other places are getting away with murder – or at least imprisonment that puts a decided chill on their oppositions. No one is likely to remember the 1,000 people found in a mass grave in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Cuba`s Fidel Castro rounded up some 75 of his dissident intellectuals and the country that usually complains about him most was busy fending off attacks of its own on the world`s stage. A few commentators who wrote about these happenings "off stage" during the Iraq war remembered Belarus -- where about 75 people have suffered short-term detention from three to 15 days and other harassment in recent weeks as they have mounted demonstrations against Europe`s last dictator.

In fact, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, an ardent supporter of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, didn`t begin his crackdown just now, under cover of the war in Iraq. Belarus had already disappeared down the world`s memory hole shortly after highly flawed and unfair presidential elections on 9 September 2001 – for obvious reasons. Democratic parties blamed each other when a unified opposition candidate who had only lukewarm support failed miserably against the Lukashenka machine. They were in shock for a year but this spring, traditionally a time of protest marches in Belarus, they have begun to appear on the streets once again and risk jail to press their platforms of sovereignty, freedom, and economic prosperity -- only not together. While various opposition groups have shared the same fate of prison gruel and cold cells, they separately staged different events in keeping with their varying political agendas and constituencies.

The first march of the season under the banner "For a Better Life" was held on 12 March jointly by the human rights group Charter-97, the youth movement Zubr (Bison), and the market vendors, a growing movement of small businessmen and stall owners vexed with the antibusiness climate of Belarus and burdensome taxes. The nationalist youth group Mlady Front blasted these organizers for stealing their thunder for another annual march, scheduled near the date of 25 March, the 85th anniversary of the Belarusian Democratic Republic, a traditional national holiday marking Belarus`s short-lived independence in the Soviet era. They berated the other marchers for using Russian leaflets and signs instead of sticking only to Belarusian. Shrugging off the criticism, the "Better Life" coalition said traditional goals of sovereignty and national identity, while vital, appeared to be insufficient to attract popular support, especially from ordinary people worried about increased apartment rents and electricity rates. They wanted to try something different.

Whatever their hopes for reaching "the people," they turned out less than 5,000, although they claimed that as many as 100,000 vendors around the country walked off their jobs that day, a number difficult to check. In Belarus, as in other post-Soviet states, a "vendor" can be an out-of-work teacher standing in the metro selling cucumbers or a shuttle-trader with a load of sneakers from Poland or Turkey at the bazaar. Four march organizers, including Charter-97 activists Andrey Sannikau, Lyudmila Hraznova, and Dzmitry Bandarenka as well as Leanid Malakhau, leader of the vendors` movement, and later Yury Khadyka of the Popular Front, Anatol Askerka of Zubr, and Mikalay Vitorsky, a vendor from Borisov, were also arrested and jailed in connection with the 12 March demonstration.

Not to be outdone, the Popular Front geared up for the Independence Day march on 23 March, without a permit. Before they could get started, police rounded up 54 participants near Independent Square and side streets as about 100 assembled. According to the Viasna human rights center, among those detained and sentenced from 10-15 days were such prominent figures as Popular Front leader Vintsuk Vyachorka, Aleksei Korol, Vyacheslau Siuchyk, Pavel Sevyarynets, Pavel Znavets, Syarhey Popkov, Yuras Belenki, and Syarhey Vysotsky. Popular Front activist Uladzimir Kishkurna, Yauhen Afnahel, a Zubr coordinator, and Zubr activists Tatsyana Yalavaya, Zmitser Barodka, and Ihar Vinnikau received five days each. Anton Kishkurno`s arm was broken while in police custody and Roman Kazakevich was expelled from university. Fifteen more Zubr activists were arrested on 3 April and sentenced to terms up to 10 days after carrying signs in front of the U.S. Embassy saying, "Down with Tyrants!" and expressing solidarity for the coalition effort to topple Saddam Hussein.

Alarmed and what they saw as European indifference to the arrests, Charter-97 activists took an appeal to the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE), explaining that "special-guest status for the unlawful National Assembly of Belarus would be taken by the existing regime as a blessing for destroying civil society completely, making the possibility of the changes more distant." Unlike the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe`s (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly, PACE did not award any status to Belarus`s nominal parliament and continued to deplore its human rights record. Meanwhile, at the UN, a resolution about Belarus, focusing in particular on the cases of the disappeared, sponsored by the U.S. with support of "new Europeans" like Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, seemed to have a chance of success although Russia and its allies would be sure to vote against it.

There was good reason to avoid giving legitimacy to the National Assembly. Predictably, all the protest throughout Belarus in recent weeks provoked the presidentially controlled legislature to pass in the first reading a new measure to exert even more control over rallies and demonstrations, Belapan reported on 7 April. Although the bill had failed twice before when the necessary 50 percent plus one vote could not be obtained, this time 73 deputies voted in favor of the president`s proposed law and against the liberal alternative, with only five opposed. The law will further restrict requirements to stage mass events and will increase organizers` responsibility for maintaining public order. Political parties may be closed by the government for even a first-time serious violation of the law, such as failure to ensure public order during street rallies or if there are any injuries or deaths.

The measure is being forced through the pliant parliament just in time to dampen efforts to campaign for the 2004 parliamentary elections. Even without a law in place that could effectively close political parties, in recent weeks, unidentified persons broke into the press office of Zubr, as well as the home of a Popular Front leader in Novopolotsk, and also the office of the Association for the Belarusian Language, taking computers or destroying property. Undaunted, opposition figures applied on 10 April to hold the annual "Chernobylski Shlyakh" (Chernobyl Procession) to commemorate on 26 April the 17th anniversary since the nuclear disaster. On the same day, "Belorusskaya delovaya gazeta" ran an article about the formation of a new opposition group calling itself "For a Better Life," next to a photo from the 12 March demonstration under a banner with the same words. The new group`s members were in fact nomenklatura figures from the "loyal opposition," and had nothing to do with the previous opposition marches. It included parliamentarians Valery Fralou and Uladzimir Parfyanovich, former Ambassador to Latvia and Estonia Mikhail Marynich, former Agriculture Minister Vasily Lyavonau, and others, who made no apologies for swiping the slogan of those more radical, who had spent the previous weeks in jail. Belarusian democrats are likely to get some boost from a bill before the U.S. Congress, the Belarus Democracy Act. Although preoccupied with the war in Iraq and bills to support other oppositions, such as in Iran, it is likely that the legislation aimed to support opponents of Lukashenka -- who has been located near the "axis of evil" if not actually on it -- will succeed. It is unlikely to provide much more than about $35 million-$40 million for democracy and human rights programming (which would still have to be appropriated by Congress, and certainly no earlier than 2004), and a significant percentage of the funding will go to U.S. advisers and democracy-building programs rather than directly to the opposition groups.

The mixed signal sent by the lifting of visa bans and the largely symbolic UN resolution are expected to be seized by the Belarusian government as evidence that they continue business as usual, with Russia`s tacit support. "Cancellation of the travel ban, previously imposed on Lukashenka and his subordinates, is yet another attempt to persuade the Belarusian authorities into behaving themselves. But it will be futile anyway, for Belarus`s problem is in the very nature of Lukashenka`s regime," commented Andrey Sannikau in a statement published on 15 April on charter97.org. "Persuasions don`t help change totalitarian regimes. On the contrary, there`s a danger by doing so of encouraging even harsher repressions against Lukashenka`s opponents, just as it happens every time after the international community starts treating him mildly," he said.