Moscow takes calmer view on destiny of its former satellites :: Charter'97 :: News

Moscow, which furiously resisted outside influence in its "near abroad" only a few months ago, is now much more muted in its response to changes in the political alignment of the former Soviet empire. Last week, Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, set out a clear prospectus for two former Soviet states, boosting Nato`s ties with Ukraine and meeting opposition leaders from Belarus.

Ms Rice called Belarus the "last dictatorship in Europe" and made clear Minsk was in the US`s sights as the next candidate for democratic change after the peaceful revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine. Even though President Aleksander Lukashenko is confident of winning the 2006 election and the opposition is weak, Belarusans have been closely watching events in neighbouring Ukraine.

Together with Javier Solana, the European Union`s foreign representative, Ms Rice called on Belarus`s fragmented opposition to unite to win power.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia`s foreign minister, visiting the same Nato gathering in Vilnius, Lithuania, responded to Ms Rice`s comments on Belarus by outlining the Kremlin`s opposition to any idea of "regime change".

But he steered well clear of the clash with his US counterpart that characterised a meeting of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe only four months ago.

On that occasion, Mr Lavrov crossed swords with Colin Powell, Ms Rice`s predecessor, warning against "new lines of division" in Europe. Ukraine was still in upheaval and Mr Lavrov expressed Moscow`s resentment at what it saw as western interference in other former Soviet republics such as Georgia and Moldova.

Today, Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine`s new president, has trumpeted his plans to join the country`s western neighbours in both Nato and the EU.

Mr Lavrov has signalled his willingness to accept an EU role in finding a solution for the smouldering conflict in the Trans Dnestr enclave in Moldova.

And Belarus, now bordered by four pro-western states, is looking increasingly isolated from Russia, its eastern neighbour.

Moscow appears to be chastened by its fruitless resistance to the peaceful revolutions that have swept its former domains in Europe. But that does not mean it has changed its view of the world.

Despite an outline deal to keep the OSCE`s finances going until the end of the year, Moscow is still pushing for a deep reform of the organisation, whose electoral observation missions it blames for sowing "instability" in the region. A gas pipeline deal with Germany could rob Ukraine and Belarus of much of their importance as transit states for Russian energy supplies for the rest of Europe.

But Moscow is taking a less explicitly confrontational line on its one-time sphere of influence.

While the US is criticising Russia over the rule of law and freedom of expression, Moscow is cultivating relations with the EU. The two are expected to reach a far-reaching deal at a summit on May 10 - an outcome that eluded them last year. EU foreign ministers are set to discuss the negotiations today, following an amicable visit to Moscow last week by Jose` Manuel Barroso, European Commission president.